Changes in Party Self-Identification Could Boost Republicans in November
Filed under
Resurgent Republic Blog
posted
July 30, 2010
(Editors Note: This piece is cross posted at the Weekly Standard Blog)
The proportion of Republicans, Democrats, and independents that turnout to vote shapes the outcome of every election. Even small shifts in these percentages can dramatically alter political outcomes. And this November’s midterm is no exception.
But estimating the partisan composition of the electorate – and especially making comparisons over time -- is trickier than you might think.
Gallup underscored this point earlier this week, showing how shifts in partisan identification over the past two years have produced more politically “competitive” states, as fewer Americans identify as Democrats.
Read More