Resurgent Republic

Democrat Problems Widen Among Those Absolutely Certain to Vote

With the election just over three months away, our most recent survey shows Republicans hold a 3 point advantage on the congressional generic ballot in key battleground states. In addition, these voters disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, 50 to 47 percent. If Democrats are looking for positive signs in this data, they shouldn’t look to those who say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Latest Job Numbers Reinforce Voter Concerns

The Labor Department released job numbers for June this morning showing that lasting private sector growth has yet to take hold (see Private Sector Growth Falters). Overall, the economy shed 125,000 jobs in June, including 225,000 temporary census jobs, and added 83,000 private sector jobs.  

Is health care getting more popular?

A new Kaiser Family Foundation national poll shows support for President Barack Obama's health care bill bumping up in a significant way over the past month, data that seems to affirm the idea pushed by Administration officials that the legislation will ultimately be a net political positive for their party.

Obama and the Fiscal 'Road to Hell'

At last week's G-20 meeting, President Barack Obama achieved a two-fer. He suffered a significant international defeat, and he increased the chances his party will suffer a major domestic one this fall.

CNN Discusses Resurgent Republic's Focus Group Findings

Read the full report on why Independents and Tea Party voters express similar concerns on Federal spending and debt.

Focus Groups Show Obama Losing Independents over Oil Spill

As oil continues to gush into the Gulf of Mexico, the results of a nationwide focus group effort indicate that Republicans aren’t the only ones questioning President Obama’s experience and ability to lead during a crisis: Independents are joining that chorus, too.

“Last year … there was still kind of a wait-and-see mentality amongst these voters toward the president,” long-time Republican strategist Ed Gillespie said of the Resurgent Republic focus group series of independent voters. “That has clearly changed.”

Resurgent Republic, a not-for-profit organization made up of high-profile Republicans, released the five-state focus group results Tuesday showing that the BP oil spill has independents concerned about how Obama will perform during a future crisis, such as a terrorist attack.

Independents Souring On Obama

A series of focus groups of voters in 5 states conducted for the conservative non-profit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. However, independents who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party movement, have "turned the page" on the president said GOP pollster Glen Bolger.

These groups, held in Des Moines, IA, Cincinnati, OH, Cherry Hill, NJ, Little Rock, AR and Orlando, FL, were comprised of registered or self-identified independents who said they were undecided on the congressional ballot test.

Bolger, who conducted the Des Moines group of Tea Party independents, described them as "more frustrated than angry" but said they had no "optimism or hope for the future."

Health Care Legislation = Bad Political Medicine?

Note: This is cross posted at The Weekly Standard.

More bad news emerged today for those Democrats hoping support for health care reform might boost their electoral fortunes.  The short answer: it won't. At least not in some pivotal states and with swing voters.

This piece in the Wall Street Journal today by David Brady, Daniel Kessler and Douglas Rivers -- all from Stanford University -- outlines findings from a new poll done by YouGov/Polimetrix in eleven states with key Senate elections this November.

Strong Appeal for GOP Among Key Voter Groups

Note: Cross-posted at The Weekly Standard.

A new Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix poll (conducted June 5-8, 2010), finds that Republicans hold a substantial edge on a number of policy issues with two key voter groups – seniors (age 65+) and independents – five months before this year’s midterm elections.

These results represent a significant shift from polling on similar survey questions in the last congressional election cycle.

Presidential Approval and Midterm Elections

Republicans now lead Democrats on the congressional generic ballot, 49 to 43 percent, the widest margin this year according to Gallup. The margin has also grown among Independents. Swing voters now favor Republicans by 47 to 34 percent, a 7 point net increase in May. These numbers will likely fluctuate in the nearly 20 weeks remaining before the November elections, but what should not be lost in the data debate is the impact President Obama's job approval rating will have on the mid-term elections.

Panel Discussion on the 2010 Political Environment

Resurgent Republic and the National Review Institute recently co-hosted a panel discussion featuring the release of a national survey of likely voters. Whit Ayres presented the key survey findings, and the panel participants included Ed Gillespie, Kate O'Beirne, Leslie Sanchez, Ramesh Ponnuru and Gary Andres. Topics included President Obama's job approval, economy, government spending and debt, health care reform and the value-added tax.

The Party of Debt

Two seemingly unrelated news stories unfolded in Washington last week -- developments that could further stoke the flames of voter discontent across America. Taken together, these reports could also label the Democrats with an ugly and hard to erase moniker heading into the November elections:  They are now the Party of Debt.

National Waves Do Not Sweep Everything Before Them

The special House election in Pennsylvania shows that national waves do not sweep everything before them.  A party on the wrong side of the wave can still win victories by running good candidates who are good fits for their districts.  Democrat Mark Critz is smart, personable, and has deep local roots.  Most important, he detached himself from national Democrats.  In one ad he said: "I opposed the health-care bill. And I'm pro-life, and pro-gun. That's not liberal."

Special Election in Pennsylvania 12 -- Republican Burns Swamped by Democratic Primary Turnout

Democratic candidate Mark Critz beat Republican Tim Burns in the closely watched special election in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district to replace the late Congressman John Murtha. Republicans hoped to pull off an upset in this district that Murtha held for the Democrats since 1974 and John McCain narrowly won in 2008. Looking at the unofficial turnout numbers, however, suggests Burns was swamped by a large turnout in the very competitive Senate Democratic primary.

The Death of Independence

Analysts are pointing toward last night’s primary results (the defeat of Arlen Specter, Trey Grayson, and the run-off for Blanche Lincoln) as – when combined with Bob Bennett and Alan Mollohan’s defeats – proof of anti-incumbency and anti-Washington establishment. The top story in the New York Times today is titled “Specter Defeat Signals a Wave Against Incumbents.”

What a Difference a Year Makes - Comparing Key Demographic Subgroups on Two Resurgent Republic Polls

In recognition of Resurgent Republic's first year anniversary, we conducted a follow up national survey in April, 2010, asking many of the same questions first posed in April 2009. The topline results posted on the website reveal all of the overall year over year change. But comparing the shifts among key demographic subgroups since last April also yields some fascinating results.

Bright GOP Outlook for November’s Midterm Elections Clouded by Immigration

For a few moments in a room full of conservatives on Capitol Hill Tuesday, there was a hint of soul-searching as they gathered to review poll numbers that for the most part reflected positively on their chances in fall’s midterm elections.

Poll: Independent Voters Deserting the Democrats in Droves

There are a number of interesting things about Resurgent Republic’s one-year anniversary poll, conducted at the end of April among 1,000 registered voters nationwide, but none more so than the clear evidence it provides that independent voters are deserting the Democrats in droves.

The GOP's messaging dilemma

Republican voters want Congress to repeal the healthcare overhaul, aren’t convinced that climate change is happening, and don’t think illegal immigrants should have a way to become citizens or that President Barack Obama has improved the United States’ global standing – all stances that put them at odds with the majority of voters, according to a new survey by Resurgent Republic.

Curbed Enthusiasm for Democrats in 2010?

Historically, voter turnout in midterm elections drops off by 10%-20%, compared to presidential elections, according to political science research.  So it's significant when polls show one party with an edge among those most enthusiastic about voting.  Research also demonstrates a high correlation between "enthusiasm" and likelihood to vote.

The Suburbs Could Produce a Republican Majority in Congress

The American suburbs fueled the emergence of the Democratic congressional majority in 2006 and then helped expand it 2008.  During those two election cycles, Republicans lost 24 incumbent or open seat races in these cul-de-sac filled districts.

But now suburbanites are shifting again. As a result, many of these districts could swing back to the GOP, providing more than half of the forty seats Republicans need to capture the majority in the House.

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The Right Ramps Up

A dozen years after Hillary Clinton complained about a vast, right-wing conspiracy, some Republicans are beginning to wonder if she didn't have some good ideas after all.

Independents Place High Priority on Reducing Deficit

The economy remains the top voter concern as the mid-term election approaches, according to a new Gallup survey. Fifty-seven (57) percent of voters say the economy is “extremely important” in determining their allegiance this November, the only issue that garners an overall majority response. After the economy, issue priorities begin to differentiate among partisan groups, most notably Independents give the federal budget deficit more importance than Democrats and Republicans.

GOP Gains on Generic Ballot and Voter Intensity in CNN Poll

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll released yesterday finds some significant generic ballot shifts favoring Republicans, as well as a growing enthusiasm gap between the parties. Both pieces of information continue to point to major electoral gains by the GOP in the upcoming November elections.

Presidential Approval and Midterm Elections

For the first time in a Gallup survey, more Americans disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance than approve, 47 to 46 percent.  The latest job approval average from Pollster.com is also negative, 49.0 to 46.7 percent. In turn, Rasmussen finds that Republicans hold a new 10 point lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 45 to 35 percent. The GOP lead has been at least 7 points since the beginning of 2010 and the current double-digit margin is "the biggest lead ever in nearly three years of weekly tracking," according to Rasmussen. This is another example of the correlation between presidential approval ratings and midterm elections, which has been well-documented.

1994 and 2010

Are we in for a Republican Revolution rerun? That’s the question posed by Jack Pitney, Claremont McKenna College professor and Resurgent Republic Advisory Board member. The answer is not a simple yes or no, since there are both similarities and differences between the two political environments.  Pitney reviews several variables, including presidential job approval, ethics investigations, special elections and the different profiles of congressional leaders.

Voter Enthusiasm Gap by Party and Age

Compared to 2006 and 2008, there is greater parity today in how voters perceive the two major political parties, largely due to concern over a weakened economy, anemic job creation, health care reform and record government spending and debt.  In fact most polls give Republicans a slight advantage in the generic congressional ballot, and Independents prefer the Republican candidate 43 to 37 percent according to Gallup.

Seniority in the Midterms

Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group (and Resurgent Republic Advisory Board member) notes that dogged pursuit by the White House and Democrats in Congress to pass their version of health care reform has had a "reverse effect among seniors" and has alienated this cohort "due to their concern of rising costs and cuts to Medicare/Medicaid." The political shift among seniors should be troubling for the majority since this group "[is] a much larger share of the electorate in midterms elections."  Read the full memo.

Zugzwang: Democrats’ 2010 Dilemma

I first encountered the word Zugzwang in a 1985 New York Times Magazine column by the late William Safire.  It’s a chess term that means “compelled to move, but imperiled by doing so.” The word’s political implications are profound.

CNN Poll: Most Americans applaud Democrats' loss of supermajority

CNN released a new poll yesterday, demonstrating most Americans support the Democrats' loss of their supermajority in the Senate caused by Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts last week. 

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday finds that 7 in 10 Americans believe that the Democrats' loss of their 60 seat supermajority in the Senate is a positive move for the country.