Resurgent Republic conducted its latest survey of 1000 American voters August 28-31, 2011, with full results available here. The following are the key highlights:
By almost every measure, President Obama's prospects for reelection are bad.
Moreover, intensity is very much on the side of those who view Obama unfavorably, including among Independent voters:
Barring a dramatic turnaround in the economy, President Obama is very vulnerable to defeat next year.
In assigning blame for the S&P downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Democrats blame Republicans, Republicans blameDemocrats, and Independents blame everyone. Three-fourths of American voters think the downgrade is a very (40 percent) or somewhat (38 percent) serious problem for the country's financial situation. Voters split their assignment of blame between Republican-aligned groups (21 percent Republicans in Congress and 9 percent Tea Party) and Democratic groups (16 percent Democrats in Congress and 12 percent President Obama). Independents split blame almost evenly between all or a combination (26 percent), Republican groups (17 percent Republicans in Congress and 8 percent Tea Party), and Democrats (16 percent Democrats in Congress and 8 percent President Obama).
When asked a two-part question giving arguments for blaming "Tea-Party Republicans" or "the Obama Administration and Democrats in Congress," voters overall blame Tea-Party Republicans by a slim 45 to 43 percent margin, with Independents blaming President Obama and Democrats by a 42 to 39 percent margin.
The more serious a problem voters think the S&P credit downgrade is for the country, the more likely they are to believe that raising the credit limit was a bad thing. Voters who think the downgrade is very serious believe raising the debt ceiling is a bad thing by 58 to 30 percent. Voters who think the downgrade was somewhat serious split evenly on raising the debt ceiling, 42 percent bad thing/41 percent good thing. On the other hand, voters who think the downgrade is not that serious think raising the debt ceiling was a good thing by 56 to 30 percent.
Voters who think the downgrade is very serious but think raising the debt ceiling was a bad thing are largely people who believe the Tea Party movement has had a positive impact. This is an indication of the depth of cynicism toward Washington and fiscal "experts" that we have seen in our focus groups with Tea-Party supporters. They simply don’t believe that Washington cannot stop spending enough to stop borrowing. Nor do they believe the apocalyptic predictions of fiscal experts about the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling, any more than they believed that the financial system would collapse unless the government bailed out Wall Street with TARP in 2008.
This survey of 1000 registered voters was conducted August 28-31, 2011. Respondents were selected randomly from a random-digit-dialing sample including both cell phone and landline telephone numbers, and were contacted by live interviewers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote in the county in which they live. Quotas were set for state, age, and race based on state registration and previous turnout. The sample was minimally weighted to reflect the current Pollster.com Democratic advantage of five points over Republicans. This sample is 34 percent Democrat, 33 percent Independent, and 29 percent Republican.
The margins of error for responses with an even split – 50 percent for one response and 50 percent for another response – are ±3.10 percent for the full sample, ±5.74 percent for Republicans, ±5.38 percent for Independents, and ±5.31 percent for Democrats. The margin of error is smaller when one response receives a higher level of support. For example, the margin of error is ±2.68 percent when 75 percent of respondents in the full sample choose one response and 25 percent choose another response.