Research

1. Voters are skeptical when hearing the economy described in upbeat terms, even when noting the economic challenges that remain. In our most recent survey, a majority of voters believe the country is on the wrong track and nearly three-fifths of voters believe the Obama Administration is at least somewhat responsible for the current state of the economy. As a result, it makes sense that President Obama did not resonate strongly with these voters when he used phrases like “the economy is growing again,” “paychecks are a little bigger,” or “the worst of the recession is over.”
2. Voters respond favorably to the call for increased competiveness and innovation in our economy, although the government’s role on this topic is not settled with voters. Voters agreed with President Obama’s statement that the nation should “out-innovate, out-education, and out-build the world” and his assertion that “the future is ours to win.” There was a drop in dial approval among all partisan groups, however, when President Obama cited the record of things “the government has provided” to boost innovation. As the White House continues to push this theme, it will be worth watching if voters believe these efforts serve more to produce lasting private sector growth or more to increase the size and scope of the public sector.

3. On ten different areas of policy the public did not fundamentally shift on which party they prefer to address those issues. Comparing scores before the State of the Union to scores on the same question after Congressman Ryan’s response, the President gained a little ground on balancing the budget, an area on which participants continue to prefer Republicans. He also gained some ground on education, energy and the environment (topics not addressed by Ryan).

   On the topics most likely to dominate the debate in Washington for the foreseeable future, after viewing both speeches, participants continue to have more confidence in Republicans. These include the economy, balancing the budget, taxes, spending, terrorism and even health care.

1. Voter approval drops when President Obama outlines new spending programs to improve the economy. On nearly every new spending issue mentioned, the dial measurement ticked downward, even when President Obama received high approval on the policy itself, such as education reform and his call for more teachers. The proposed Federal spending for high-speed rail also impacted the partisan groups as Independents had a slight decrease and Republican support hit its lowest range recording between three and four on the dials. This focus group response is consistent with our January survey in which 61 percent of voters, including 69 percent of Independents, favored spending less money to reduce the deficit rather than spending more money in order to help boost the economy.
2. Independents look more like Republicans than Democrats throughout Congressman Ryan’s response which focused primarily on fiscal issues. Among Independents, Ryan garnered strong support on his statements that the nation must “confront it [the debt] responsibly” and his request that voters “hold all of us accountable.” Independents join Republicans on being more favorable than Democrats on other key issues in the public debate, including the statement “endless borrowing is not a strategy; spending cuts must come first” and the notion that “depending on bureaucracy to foster innovation, competiveness, and wise consumer choices has never worked – and it won’t work now.”

3. President Obama received general support from voters when discussing taxes and economic policies. On the issue of expanding free trade, President Obama received positive ratings from all partisan groups. Interestingly, these Ohio Democrats were steady in approval on the free trade remarks and at times recorded stronger intensity on this issue than Republicans and Independents. Voters showed similar support for cutting the corporate tax rate and plans to simplify the tax code.

   Although there was some decline, voter response remained generally favorable when President Obama stated his opposition to making the “tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% of Americans” permanent. Failing to do so, voters were told, would result in deficit increases and spending cuts to education. Not surprisingly, support among Democrats stayed consistent, while Independents decreased slightly (from 9 to 7) and Republicans had the largest drop (from 8 to 5).

1. President Obama loses support among all partisan groups on controlling the rising costs of health care. Comparing ratings before and after remarks on lowering Medicare and Medicaid costs and the statement “health insurance reform will slow these rising costs,” Obama’s dial test support among Democrats saw a 20 percent dip; Independents decreased by one-third; and Republicans fell by more than half. The lone exception to this decline occurred when Obama mentioned medical malpractice reform as a way to help control costs. Voter approval for the latter policy was immediate in the dials.

President Obama’s State of the Union may have helped him solidify or build on gains he made in the lame duck session of Congress when he embraced extending the Bush tax cuts, but voters – and particularly critical Independents – are waiting to see if his actions in the future match his words today. Republicans hold more credibility on the fiscal issue set, and those Independents continue to look like Republicans when it comes to their opinions of Federal spending and the debt.