Independents and Tea Partiers Express Similar Concerns over Federal Spending and Debt
Published on
June 29, 2010
Overview
Nearly four months out from the mid-term elections, Independent voters remain anxious about the direction of the country. The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has contributed significantly to their negative outlook and raised questions about President Obama’s ability to lead during a future crisis. Independents and Tea Party voters alike share similar concerns over “reckless” and “out-of-control” Federal spending and debt and believe the economic stimulus package and the new health care reform law will add to the deficit.
As a result, they generally favor a greater check and balance on the Democratic agenda (even those who disapprove of Republicans). The growth disparity between the public and private sectors reinforces their opinion that the Federal Government has the wrong priorities and is not focused on creating lasting private sector growth. And similar to our focus group findings last August, these Independents remain apprehensive of the Federal Government playing an ever-expanding role in our economy. You can read the full report here.
This focus group series was conducted in Iowa, Ohio, New Jersey, Arkansas and Florida and covered the following topics:
- Direction of the Country
- Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico
- Perceptions of President Obama
- Reckless Government Spending
- Personalizing the Debt
- One-Party Control of Government
- Tax Policy
- Growth Disparity between Public and Private Sectors
What does this all mean? Read our conclusions.
These voters revealed high anxiety over the direction of the country and used mostly negative terms to describe a sluggish economy, lack of job creation and growing concern over the level of government spending. In describing the direction of the country, Independents used words like “turmoil,” “rudderless,” “confusion” and “frustration,” similar to concerns expressed by Tea Partiers.
Do Independents, Tea Partiers and Small Business Owners think the direction of the country will improve? Read the full report here.
Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico
In addition to the economy, the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and specifically the response from British Petroleum and the Obama Administration contributed significantly to the negative outlook. When asked to describe the overall response to the oil spill, they described their feelings about both camps with words like “frustration,” “upsetting,” “confusion,” “incompetence,” and “anger.”
Do these voters believe offshore drilling should continue? Read full report here.
Perceptions of President Obama
President Obama received low marks for his response to the oil spill from nearly all these voters. He is perceived as moving too slow and not recognizing the severity of the problem. Perhaps more damaging politically, Independents said the manner in which President Obama has handled the oil spill makes them more apprehensive or even nervous should a terrorist attack or a major foreign policy crisis occur.
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Other Independents held out hope that the Administration will learn from its mistakes and do better in a future crisis, but the reality that the oil spill has caused some Independents to question President Obama’s experience and ability to lead – a critique isolated to Republican circles thus far – should be troubling for Democrats.
Beyond the oil response, there was palpable frustration among voters that the President has failed to meet their original expectations. One Independent male in New Jersey, who voted for Obama and supports the stimulus and health care reform, could not bring himself to say he approves of the President’s job performance: “I’m shocked that I’m uncertain. I believed there would have been significant change [by now].”
Still, even though these Independents said Obama has not met their expectations to date, they continue generally to hold a favorable view of him and believe he can make the necessary changes to get back on track. While the Independents still hold out such hope, the Tea Party voters were entrenched in their belief that President Obama is all style and no substance.
Did the health care debate change Independents' perception of Obama? Read full report here.
Most of these Independents, and all the Tea Party members, viewed the current level of Federal spending as “reckless” and “out-of-control.” They also viewed the amount of spending as “unnecessary” and “unhelpful” to the country right now.
Independent voters’ assessment of the $787 billion economic stimulus package has shifted little since our focus group series last August, showing that the White House’s persistent rhetoric that the stimulus has been a net-benefit for the economy has failed to persuade these swing voters.
When pressed to describe positive benefits from the stimulus, these voters focused mostly on construction projects and aid to state governments to alleviate budget shortfalls. As one small business owner in Ohio pointed out, the stimulus created “jobs but not employment” – a lot of temporary government work.
Although they could not explain how the stimulus has benefited them personally, some Independents maintained a lukewarm response to the stimulus package (especially the voters in New Jersey), but doubted whether it would have a lasting positive impact. Even those who did not have a visceral anti-stimulus feeling did not seem to view the stimulus bill as much of an accomplishment.
Setting aside their opinions on how the new health care law will impact their quality of care, Independents and Tea Party members alike believe the new health care law will add to the deficit. While the specific details of the new law might not be clear, there is an understanding that President Obama and Congress created another entitlement program when, in the words of one Florida Independent, "we can’t manage the ones we already have.”
Has government spending improved the outlook among these Small Business Owners? Read full report here.
These voters had a difficult time describing how the skyrocketing debt will affect them personally, but that does not mean the issue is of little importance to them. Out-of-control spending and debt stirs anxiety among Independents and is a defining issue for Tea Party voters. Nearly all the participants believe the growing level of debt is “unsustainable” and see it as a direct threat to future generations and America’s standing in the world.
The closest participants came to tying the debt to their own lives was the sentiment that, if I have to operate within a set budget in my life, why doesn’t the government have to do the same thing? The idea of the government playing by a different set of rules strikes voters as being unfair, especially when during this recession they’ve personally had to cut back on spending or have “to play defense,” as a New Jersey small business owner lamented.
Both Independents and Tea Partiers voiced concerns about the United States going “bankrupt” and described China’s holding so much of our nation’s debt as “scary” and “embarrassing.” Both types of voters also found it plausible that we could face a financial crisis like that in Greece, although Independents were more likely to believe that it would not be in China’s interest to call-in the debt it holds.
How did these voters react to adopting a value-added tax? Read full report here.
One-Party Control of Government
Most of these voters believe that too much power is centralized in one political party today. One small business owner said there’s “no one to protect the chicken house.” They believe one-party control of government has contributed to out-of-control government spending and the mortgaging of future generations. In this context, most of these Independent voters believe there needs to be a greater check and balance on the Democratic agenda (even those who disapprove of Republicans).
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The argument loses some persuasion among those Independents and Tea Party voters who have an equal dislike for both political parties. Some of these Independents believe divided government would only lead to more bickering, although others thought it could be the catalyst for honest negotiations between both political spectrums. When probed, several voters stated that the economic stimulus and heath care reform bill would have cost the nation less if Republicans held control of one chamber of Congress, although they believed both would still have passed.
Voters were told information regarding the increasing number of earners who pay no Federal income taxes or receive a refund, and told that today 47% of earners account for 0% of Federal income tax liability while 53% of earners pay 100% of Federal income taxes. Similar to our findings last August, a few respondents did not express concern with the increasingly progressivity of the tax code, but other voters question whether the tax structure is fair and the potential impact on Federal spending if we reach a point where half or a majority of wage earners have no Federal income tax liability.
Growth Disparity between Public and Private Sectors
The growth in government jobs juxtaposed with the hemorrhaging of private sector jobs was seen as extremely problematic (since the recession, the Federal government has added over 656,000 jobs while the private sector has lost nearly 8 million jobs). The disparity reinforced the idea that the Federal Government has the wrong priorities and is not focused on creating lasting jobs in the private sector, a common theme during the economic stimulus discussion.
As one Florida Independent noted, “You need one [private sector jobs] to have the other [public sector jobs].” Further complicating matters, several small business owners expressed frustration that they couldn’t compete with the greater pay and benefits offered by the Federal Government, limiting their ability to find the best possible employees.
What did New Jersey voters say about the state's budget crisis? Read full report here.
- The oil spill has caused some Independents to question President Obama's experience and ability to lead.
- Labeling the current level of Federal spending and debt as reckless and out-of-control is likely to resonate with both Independents and those who identify with the Tea Party movement.
- Participants believe the economic remedy offered by President Obama and the Democratic Congress is misguided. These Independents are more likely to believe their actions have done more to bolster public sector projects and ailing state budgets than stimulate lasting job creation.
- The growth disparity between the public and private sectors was very troubling to voters.
- The argument that the Federal Government should adhere to a budget like voters do resonated the most in personalizing the debt.
- By reminding the public that more Federal spending and debt stifles innovation and slows economic recovery, opponents of greater government intervention in the economy will have a significant impact on the public debate.