Resurgent Republic

Post: Changes in Party Self-Identification Could Boost Republicans in November

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 08:24:00 -0400

(Editors Note: This piece is cross posted at the Weekly Standard Blog)

The proportion of Republicans, Democrats, and independents that turnout to vote shapes the outcome of every election. Even small shifts in these percentages can dramatically alter political outcomes. And this November’s midterm is no exception.

But estimating the partisan composition of the electorate – and especially making comparisons over time -- is trickier than you might think.

Gallup underscored this point earlier this week, showing how shifts in partisan identification over the past two years have produced more politically “competitive” states, as fewer Americans identify as Democrats.

The number of states categorized as “solid Democrat” or “lean Democrat” has dropped from 36 in 2008 to 23 in 2010. Solid or leaning Republican grew from 5 to 12 during the same time period.

Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics does a nice job explaining why Republicans are competitive on the national electoral map while still lagging the Democrats on party ID in so many states.

Gallup grouped states based on self-identified party identification. The study was based on more than 175,000 interviews with adults conducted between January and June 2010 as part of the survey organization’s daily tracking.

In addition to analyzing state-based shifts for the past couple of years, Gallup also reports trends in national party ID between 2008 and this year.

Here too, the shifts are no better for President Obama and his party. The proportion of adults identifying with the Democrats dropped by 8 percentage points (52 to 44 percent) over the last two years, while the percent saying they are Republicans (including those leaning toward the GOP) remained the same at 40 percent. The share of pure independents doubled from 8 percent in 2008 to 16 percent in 2010.

The increasing number of independents is not surprising, as we move toward an off year election. Since at least World War II, the number of non-aligned falls in a presidential election year and then crescendos as the midterms approach. That shift is happening again right now.

These changes, however, demonstrate that the precise partisan configuration of the electorate is always in flux.

Another part of the confusion arises from the term “party-identification” itself. When pollsters talk about the concept, they refer to self-identification – how a person chooses to describe themselves in a survey (“generally speaking do you think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat or Independent?”).

This differs from formal party registration requirements that exist in some states. For example, a person may have registered to vote as a Democrat 20 years ago, but now feels closer to the GOP and tells a pollster he or she is a Republican. Or maybe a voter liked President Bush in 2000 and as a result responded to a poll by saying she was a Republican. But, inspired by Barrack Obama’s campaign in 2008, they are now more comfortable calling themselves a Democrat.

Political scientists agree that these kinds of shifts are more common among people with weaker partisan attachments. It’s probably more likely that people who call themselves independent might shift into a weak partisan category based on short-term factors, like excitement about a candidate or a scandal affecting the party with which they previously aligned. Strong partisans are less likely to shift, but research also shows a small percentage sometimes does.

Had the 2008 electorate exhibited the partisan breakdown Gallup found in their most recent study, John McCain would have still lost, but by a much smaller margin. If you assume the electorate would vote in the same way in 2010 compared to 2008 (i.e. both McCain and Obama receive about 90 percent of their respective partisan voters and Obama narrowly wins among independents, a shift in 8 points from the Democratic side, where 90 percent voted for Obama, to the independent column, where only 52 percent voted for Obama) it would have produced millions of additional votes for McCain, turning an 8 million vote win for Obama into a razor thin victory.

For the same reason, this shifting partisanship pattern could doom many Democrats in marginal seats in November. The difference between an electorate made up of 52 percent self-identified Democrats and one with only 44 percent will cost them millions of votes. Moreover, the enlarged share of independents also tilts more Republican now on measures like the generic ballot compared to 2 years ago. Finally, the Gallup numbers demonstrate a shift among all adults. Other polls have shown Republicans garner an even larger share of the generic ballot among likely voters.

These swings in the composition of the electorate – assuming they continue through for the next 100 days – could spell real trouble for congressional Democrats this November.

Post: Democrat Inaction on Scheduled Tax Increases Looms over August Recess

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 11:50:00 -0400

This August, Obama will travel to several states campaigning for Democrat candidates in the House and Senate. According to Politico, he will participate in a high dollar, Los Angeles fundraiser for Nancy Pelosi. He also plans to make stops in Washington campaigning for Senate incumbent Patty Murray (via The Seattle Times). According to Resurgent Republic’s latest survey the voters in California and Washington had a lot to say about Obama’s performance so far and the scheduled tax increases.

Our latest poll was conducted in 12 “toss up” Senate states including California and Washington. Among those absolutely certain to vote, Republicans hold a 10 point advantage on the congressional generic ballot (44 to 34 percent). In addition, these voters disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, 55 to 42 percent.

When questioned on the scheduled tax increases, a majority of voters (54 percent) were aware of them. Regardless of their knowledge, a majority of Republicans and Independents opposed letting the tax cuts expire.

From the Resurgent Republic memo:

“If the Democrats who control Congress do not stop or delay these scheduled
tax increases before the November election, 55 percent of the voters in
these states would be less likely to vote for Democratic candidates for the
House or Senate, including 57 percent of Independents.”

Obama’s campaign events may do more to remind voters what congressional Democrats have failed to do so far – namely stop the scheduled tax increases.

Article: Bush-Era Tax Cuts a Likely Campaign Theme

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:45:00 -0400

Democrats are aiming to push legislation extending Bush-era middle-class tax cuts ahead of midterm elections. But with Republicans and several Democrats advocating a similar extension for high-earners, too, prospects for passage before November balloting appear uncertain.

So Democrats already are planning to turn the issue into a campaign theme—by blaming Republicans if the legislation fails. The looming battle over taxes and spending is likely to be a dominant one in Washington, stretching into next year, as the government begins to address chronic budget deficits.

"The Senate will move first, and it will be a test to see whether Republicans filibuster" to block the bill in a bid to also win tax cuts for higher earners, said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, head of the House Democrats' re-election effort.

"If you can't get it out of the Senate, then you take it to the election," Mr. Van Hollen said in a recent interview. "You say to the American people that Republicans want to continue to hold middle-class tax relief hostage for an extension of tax breaks for [the well-to-do]. That will be the debate."

A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid confirmed on Sunday that the Nevada Democrat "intends to take a bill [to extend middle-class tax cuts] to the floor in September."

The Democrats' emerging tactic is a risky one being necessitated by the difficulty of the policy choices and the party's internal divisions on the issue.
Given the uncertainty of the Senate outcome, the strategy offers the GOP a chance to accuse Democrats of planning to raise taxes on most Americans, by allowing all the Bush tax cuts to lapse. The cuts, passed in 2001 and 2003, will expire on Jan. 1, 2011, unless Congress passes legislation to extend them.

"Washington Democrats are poised to allow the largest tax increase in American history to take effect next year," Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana said Saturday in the GOP's weekly address.

Democrats reject the idea. Taking to the talk shows Sunday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated the Obama administration's support for extending middle-class breaks for families making less than $250,000 annually, while allowing those for higher earners to lapse, as part of a bid to tackle deficits.

Already, Republicans have been warning that Democrats are ignoring a "ticking tax bomb."

A GOP research group plans to release new poll results Monday showing voters in 12 swing states might punish Democratic incumbents for failing to take action on the expiring tax cuts ahead of the election. The poll by Resurgent Republic says 55% of voters in those states would be less likely to vote for Democratic congressional candidates if Congress doesn't stop or delay next year's scheduled tax increases before Election Day.

Even if the tax-cut bill manages to pass the Senate, it could expose Democrats to the charge that they are raising taxes on higher earners in the midst of a weak economy, and hurting small-business owners.

"We are eager to oblige our friends on the other side of the aisle who want to have this debate," Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah) said in a statement Sunday. "This is about stopping a job-killing tax hike on small businesses during tough economic times."

About 2% of U.S. households earn more than $250,000 annually, according to recent statistics. Still, the Senate-first strategy feeds into one of the Democrats' broader themes—that Republicans are clinging to policies of former President George W. Bush.

The strategy also could mute Republican criticism that Democrats are doing nothing to address the tax cuts' expiration. And by having the Senate move first, it might allow vulnerable House Democrats to avoid politically risky votes to raise taxes on higher earners, or add to future budget deficits.

Members of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee held a series of closed-door meetings last week to begin negotiating the outlines of an extension bill. But already, four senators whom Democrats normally would count on have said they have concerns about letting the upper-income breaks lapse while the economy is weak.

If the Senate ultimately is unable to muster the votes to pass a tax bill, some knowledgeable Democrats predict the House still might try a short-term middle-class extension bill ahead of the election.

Article: GOP poll: Voters in toss-up states closely eyeing tax battle

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:43:00 -0400

Voters in states with “toss-up” Senate races will look heavily to a looming battle over income taxes, a GOP poll argued Monday.

Resurgent Republic, a research group founded by former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Ed Gillespie, released a poll stating that voters from states undergoing “toss-up” Senate races in November largely oppose letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire at the end of the year.

Fifty-five percent said they would be less likely to vote for Democratic candidates in House or Senate races if Democrats failed to stop or delay tax increases before the November elections, the poll found. Twenty-one percent said they would be more likely to vote for a Democrat.

The survey polled 1,000 likely voters from 12 states facing uncertain elections, as listed by Cook Political Report. Those states included Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington.

Three-quarters of Republican voters and two-thirds of both independents and Democrats who were surveyed said they were concerned that important legislative issues won’t be addressed until after the November elections, in a lame-duck session of Congress.

Sixty-three percent said that they would be less likely to vote for their member of Congress if he or she refused to rule out voting on hot-button issues like tax rate changes, immigration reform, energy legislation or card check after the November elections.

The poll, conducted by Ayres, McHenry & Associates between July 17-20, has an overall 3.1 percent margin of error, a 5.66 percent margin of error for Republican subsamples, a 5.17 percent margin of error for independent subsamples, and a 5.39 percent margin of error for Democratic subsamples.

Article: Resurgent Republic Polls Voters in Battleground States

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:20:00 -0400

Overwhelmingly Oppose Scheduled Tax Increases in New Survey, “Lame Duck Session” of Congress also opposed

Speaker Pelosi only last week refused to rule out a lame duck session of Congress to consider controversial legislation, seeking to set up Republicans for blame if they do, citing obstructionism. She is cutting against the grain of public opinion in key swing states, and Republicans should reinforce voter wariness of a possible lame duck session of Congress.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Geithner rejected extending all of the tax relief measures saying, “I don’t believe it should and I don’t believe it will.”

If Democrats enact only targeted tax relief (i.e., marriage penalty, child tax credit, 10% bracket only) they will be opposed by the vast majority of Independents on the tax cuts they do not extend, while making clear not only whose taxes will remain at current levels but also whose will be going up.

Yet, failing to enact any tax relief before adjourning for the November elections will make voters less likely to vote for Democrats.

Lastly, all incumbents in both parties seeking re-election should be asked if they will pledge not to vote for controversial bills like:

1.Tax Increases
2.Cap-and-Trade Legislation
3.Card Check, or
4.Immigration Reform in a lame duck session of Congress after the elections.

Democrats who do so will make it harder for the current majority to pass such bad policies will make clear to liberal voters that any secret plan to do so is not viable).

If they don’t, their voters will be able to cast an informed vote on their incumbent congressman or senator.

Read the full Resurgent Republic report for new data on:

?2011 Tax Increases
?the Capital Gains Tax
?the Child Tax Credit
?Congressional Job Approval
?the Death Tax
?the Federal Deficit
?Generic Congressional Ballot
?Income Tax Increases
?the Marriage Penalty
?a possible Lame Duck Session of Congress, and
?Obama’s Job Approval.

Read Resurgent Republic’s conclusion.

Article: Poll: Dems Hurt If They Don't Renew Bush Tax Cuts

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:15:00 -0400

The upcoming fight over the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts at the end of the year could motivate voters to cast their ballots against Democrats in a handful of tossup Senate races, a new poll finds.

The Resurgent Republic poll shows that voters in these tossup states overwhelmingly oppose letting the tax cuts expire on Dec. 31, the Hill reports.

Resurgent, which former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie founded, surveyed 1,000 likely voters in 12 states that the Cook Political Report lists in the tossup category, including Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington.

According to the survey, 55 percent indicated they would be less likely to back Democratic candidates in the House or Senate, should the Democrats fail to block the tax hikes before the November elections.

Democrats plan to turn the issue into a campaign theme by blaming Republicans should legislation extending the Bush tax cuts into next year fail, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“The Senate will move first, and it will be a test to see whether Republicans filibuster,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told the Journal. “If you can’t get it out of the Senate, then you take it to the election.

“You say to the American people that Republicans want to continue to hold middle-class tax relief hostage for an extension of tax breaks for [the well-to-do]. That will be the debate.”

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner signaled during the weekend that the Obama administration favors allowing tax breaks for those making more than $250,000 to expire as planned, while extending tax breaks for those making less than $250,000.

Republicans likewise have their knives sharpened over the issue, saying the Democrats are ignoring a “ticking time bomb,” the Journal stated.

Democrats still could face Republican charges they are harming small-business owners, many of whom file their business taxes on personal income tax forms, even if a bill extending the Bush tax cuts passes the Senate.

“We are eager to oblige our friends on the other side of the aisle who want to have this debate,” Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, told the Journal. “This is about a job-killing tax hike on small businesses during tough economic times.”

But Democrats say Republican efforts to preserve the Bush tax cuts could open them up to charges that they are clinging to former President George W. Bush’s policies.

Gillespie’s poll also found voters are concerned Democrats may wait until the post-election lame-duck session to address controversial issues such as tax increases, immigration reform, or card check.

According to the survey, three-quarters of Republican voters and two-thirds of Democratic and independent voters say they oppose postponing key votes on these issues until after the elections.

Voters in these states overwhelmingly say they would be less likely to vote for their members of Congress if they refused to rule out voting on controversial issues in a lame-duck session, by a 63-19 percent margin.

Ayres, McHenry & Associates conducted the survey for Resurgent between July 17 and 20, according to The Hill. It has an overall 3.1 percent margin of error; a 5.66 percent margin of error for its Republican samples; a 5.17 percent margin of error for its independent samples; and a 5.39 margin of error for its Democratic samples.

Article: Lame duck session poses a threat to Democrats this November

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 15:20:00 -0400

Democrats in Congress are clearly considering convening a lame duck session of congress after November’s elections to move much of their liberal agenda. Last week Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused to rule it out, and when Senator John Kerry was asked recently if cap-and-trade legislation was dead, he said it wasn’t because “we’re going to have a lame-duck session and we have weeks ahead of us.”

But voters are leery of the Democratic majority in congress reconvening after the election to pass a cap-and-trade bill, immigration reform, card check legislation or tax increases, according to a poll released today by Resurgent Republic, a conservative non-profit group (on whose board I serve) that tests public opinion on important policy questions.

In the new survey of voters in the dozen states listed as Senate toss-ups in the Cook Political Report, 69 percent of voters agreed that a lame duck session of Congress is a bad idea because “members of Congress should cast votes on important bills before facing the voters, not wait until after an election to cast those votes,” versus just 26 percent who agreed that a lame duck session is a good idea because “it allows Congress to address issues that it did not have time for before the election, and those issues can be addressed without the pressure of an impending election.”

By a margin of 63 to 32 percent, voters sided with the candidate who says “these are important issues that have long-lasting effects, and if they’re not voted on before the November elections we should wait until the newly elected Congress meets” over the candidate who says, “these are important issues that deserve to be voted on by Congress as soon as possible. If Congress cannot get to them before the election, then they should be addressed in a lame duck session immediately after the election regardless of the election’s outcome.”

Voters feel strongly enough about the wrongness of moving controversial legislation after the elections that 63 percent said they would be less likely to vote to re-elect a member of Congress who refused to rule out voting for tax increases, immigration reform, cap-and-trade legislation or a card check bill in a lame duck session of Congress.

Additionally, unless Congress acts before the end of this year Americans will face tax increases hitting everyone from married couples to parents to low income earners to investors to survivors of deceased parents. Resurgent Republic’s survey showed that only a little over half of all voters (54 percent) are aware that the largest tax increase in American history is slated to take effect on January 1, 2011 if Congress does not act.

With opposition ranging between 61 percent to 87 percent, these voters reject “raising taxes on married couples,” “raising income taxes on all wage earners,” “reducing the tax credit for people with children,” and “raising the tax rate on income from dividends or interest. Majorities of Republicans and Independents oppose all these tax hikes, while Democrats split (40 to 40 percent) on “increasing the number of families paying the alternative minimum tax,” and support (50 percent) “raising the estate tax rate” and (56 percent) “raising the tax rate on capital gains.”

If the Democrat majority in Congress does not act to stop the looming tax increases, Independents are less likely to support Democrat candidates for House and Senate this November by a 57 to 18 percent margin. Democrats are split with 36 percent more likely to support their own candidate and 31 percent less likely.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Geithner rejected extending all of the tax relief measures saying, “I don’t believe it should and I don’t believe it will.” If Democrats enact only targeted tax relief (i.e., marriage penalty, child tax credit, 10% bracket only) they will be opposed by the vast majority of Republicans and Independents on the tax cuts they do not extend, while making clear not only whose taxes will remain at current levels but also whose will be going up. Yet, failing to enact any tax relief before adjourning for the November elections will also make voters less likely to vote for Democrats.

All incumbents in both parties seeking re-election should be asked if they will pledge not to vote for controversial bills like tax increases, cap-and-trade legislation, card check or immigration reform in a lame duck session of Congress after the elections. Democrats who do so will make it harder for the current majority to pass these unpopular policies (and will make clear to liberal voters that any secret plan to do so is not viable). If they do not make that pledge, their voters will be able to cast an informed vote on their incumbent representative or senator in November.

The Democratic majorities in Congress are in the unenviable position of being damned if they do, damned if they don’t. The key is for Republicans to smoke them out, not allowing them to hide their intentions from the voters in November.

Ed Gillespie is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and Counselor to President Bush.

Post: Democrat Problems Widen Among Those Absolutely Certain to Vote

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 04:58:00 -0400

With the election just over three months away, our most recent survey shows Republicans hold a 3 point advantage on the congressional generic ballot in key battleground states. In addition, these voters disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, 50 to 47 percent.

The political landscape becomes more troubling for Democrats when looking at those absolutely certain to vote this November. On the generic congressional ballot, the Republican advantage increases to 10 points, 44 to 34 percent. President Obama’s job performance doesn’t fare much better. Obama goes further upside down among those absolutely certain to vote, 55 to 42 percent. With numbers like these, it’s open to debate as to whether a presidential visit will do more to help a Democrat or Republican candidate prior to the election.

O verall, 65 percent of those surveyed said they are absolutely certain to vote. Republicans (73 percent) and Independents (64 percent) outnumber Democrats (57 percent). The survey was fielded in “toss-up” Senate states as designated by the Cook Political Report (AR, CA, CO, FL, IL, KY, MO, NH, NV, OH, PA, and WA).

PollingAnalysis: Voters in Battleground States Overwhelmingly Oppose Scheduled Tax Increases and Lame Duck Session of Congress

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0400

Overview

Voters in the dozen states with 2010 U.S. Senate races designated as "toss ups" by the Cook Political Report overwhelmingly oppose tax increases scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2011, and do not believe Members of Congress should address important legislation in a lame duck session of Congress after the November elections, according to Resurgent Republic's analysis. These dozen states - Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington - are very likely to determine which party controls the U.S. Senate in 2011.

Resurgent Republic's most recent survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted from July 17 to 20, 2010

Tax Increases

On January 1, 2011, the largest tax increase in the nation’s history will go into effect unless Congress acts to prevent it, but the Democratic Congressional leadership has yet to schedule legislation to stop the tax hikes.

Somewhat surprisingly, only a little over half of all voters (54 percent) are aware of the looming tax increases. There is an interesting partisan divide in the awareness, however: 70 percent of Republican voters in these states and 57 percent of Independents have heard about the impending tax increases, compared to only 38 percent of Democrats.

Would you say you have heard or have not heard about a significant increase in federal income taxes that is scheduled to occur on January 1, 2011?

Regardless of whether they have heard about the impending increases, a majority of these voters opposes bringing back the “marriage penalty” (87 percent), raising the tax rate on dividend income (79 percent), reducing the child tax credit (74 percent), raising income tax rate on all wage earners (73 percent), reviving the “death tax” (63 percent), raising capital gains tax (61 percent) and increasing the number of families paying the alternative minimum tax (50 percent).

If the Democrats who control Congress do not stop or delay these scheduled tax increases before the November election, 55 percent of the voters in these states would be less likely to vote for Democratic candidates for the House or Senate, including 57 percent of Independents.

Among the partisan groups, a majority of Republicans and Independents opposes all seven of these tax increases, compared to Democrats who support raising the capital gains tax (56 to 41 percent), the “death tax” (50 to 46 percent) and split on the alternative minimum tax (40 to 40 percent). Failure to extend all the tax relief slated to expire will once again put Democrats at odds with Independent voters.

If the Democrats who control Congress do not act to stop or delay these scheduled tax increases before the election, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for Democratic candidates for House and Senate?

How did these voters respond to all seven tax increases tested? Read the full report here.

Reducing the Deficit

Widespread opposition to tax increases is grounded in the perception that the federal deficit is driven by too much spending rather than too little revenue. The survey posed two alternative statements:

We need more tax revenue as well as spending cuts to reduce the federal deficit. We will never get the deficit under control unless we make the difficult but necessary decision to raise taxes.

Our federal deficit is a result of too much spending in Washington, not too little tax revenue. Instead of raising taxes on anyone, Congress should make the difficult but necessary decisions to get spending under control.

The debate over whether additional tax revenue is needed to address record deficits might still be alive in Washington, but it is already settled with voters.

These voters prefer the second statement over the first by 73 to 24 percent, with a majority of all three partisan groups believing that the deficit is primarily a spending rather than a revenue problem. The debate over whether additional tax revenue is needed to address record deficits might still be alive in Washington, but it is already settled with voters.

Lame Duck Congressional Session

Voters in these toss-up Senate states believe it is a bad idea to pass major legislation in a lame duck session of congress. Three-fourths of Republicans and two-thirds of both Independents and Democrats agree that "a lame duck session of Congress is a bad idea. Members of Congress should cast votes on important bills before facing the voters, not wait until after an election to cast those votes."

A majority of voters in these states believes that if Congress does not vote on tax increases, card check, cap-and-trade legislation or immigration reform before the November elections it is because Democrats are afraid their positions will be unpopular with voters, not because they think Republicans are obstructing the political process. The critical swing group of Independents blames any failure to address these issues on Democratic fears rather than Republican obstruction by 57 to 32 percent.

By a margin of 63 to 19 percent, voters in toss-up Senate states would be less likely to vote for their member of Congress if he or she refused to rule out voting on important issues like tax increases, immigration reform, cap-and-trade legislation or card check in a lame duck session of Congress, including 69 to 19 percent among Republicans, 63 to 19 percent among Independents, and 59 to 21 percent among Democrats.

If your member of Congress refused to rule out voting for those important bills in a lame duck session of Congress, would that make you more or less likely to vote to re-elect him?

When should Congress address these issues if they fail to do so before November? Read the full report here.

Conclusion

Speaker Pelosi only last week refused to rule out a lame duck session of Congress to consider controversial legislation, seeking to set up Republicans for blame if they do, citing obstructionism. She is cutting against the grain of public opinion in key swing states, and Republicans should reinforce voter wariness of a possible lame duck session of Congress.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Geithner rejected extending all of the tax relief measures saying, “I don’t believe it should and I don’t believe it will.” If Democrats enact only targeted tax relief (i.e., marriage penalty, child tax credit, 10% bracket only) they will be opposed by the vast majority of Independents on the tax cuts they do not extend, while making clear not only whose taxes will remain at current levels but also whose will be going up. Yet, failing to enact any tax relief before adjourning for the November elections will make voters less likely to vote for Democrats.

Lastly, all incumbents in both parties seeking re-election should be asked if they will pledge not to vote for controversial bills like tax increases, cap-and-trade legislation, card check or immigration reform in a lame duck session of Congress after the elections. Democrats who do so will make it harder for the current majority to pass such bad policies (and will make clear to liberal voters that any secret plan to do so is not viable). If they don’t, their voters will be able to cast an informed vote on their incumbent congressman or senator.

Read the full report here.

Article: Board Member Leslie Sanchez on CSPAN's Washington Journal

Fri, 16 Jul 2010 14:10:00 -0400

Article: Pelosi Delusion

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 13:01:00 -0400

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is seeing things. The Hill, a newspaper covering Congress, reports that she has "seized on new polls that suggest healthcare overhaul's popularity is rising, and is urging members of Congress to use this week's recess to tout the new law."

Ms. Pelosi's may be counting a phantom army of health care supporters. While she cites a Kaiser Family Foundation survey from last month that found 48% of respondents viewed ObamaCare favorably, other polls tell a different story. Rasmussen Reports found 60% of likely voters in this fall's election still back repeal of the bill. A new survey by pollster Whit Ayers for the GOP group Resurgent Republic found voters back repeal by 53% to 41%, even when juxtaposed against a strong populist message that "we should stand up to the insurance companies, not give in to them."

To read the entire article click here.

Article: Pelosi’s Healthcare Town Hall Plan Will Hurt Democrats

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 19:40:00 -0400

Congressional Democrats have spent most of the last year hiding from the voters, refusing to engage them in the town hall meeting format that proved so damaging during last summer’s healthcare debate. Now, buoyed by some carefully selected polling data that suggests support for the new law may be increasing, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team “have sent lawmakers back to their districts urging them to hold town hall-type meetings,” the Hill reported Wednesday, “in the belief it could help Democrats avoid major losses in November.”

It’s a fool’s errand, akin to asking them to climb atop a log as it heads toward a buzz saw.

Most of the polls conducted since Congress narrowly approved the new healthcare show it is still not popular. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey of those likely to vote in the November 2010 election found 60 percent of those queried were opposed to the law while only 36 percent said they were for it. A poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted by Resurgent Republic found likely voters in agreement that the law should be repealed “by a 53 to 41 percent margin, including a 52 to 39 percent margin among Independents.”

To read the rest of the article click here.

Article: How Will Repealing Health Care Play in November?

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 19:36:00 -0400

It's hard to imagine the nation's massive new set of health care laws simply vanishing after a bad November for Democrats, but some Republicans are calling for just that, and it looks like the strategy could win them a few votes in conservative districts this fall.

According to a new survey from GOP polling/research firm Resurgent Republic, a full 53% of independent voters support repeal, while 41% oppose it and 8% either don't know or aren't sure.

This is a statistic that could very well become part of Republican talking points for November, as they depict health reform as wildly unpopular. But it's worth taking a look at how the question was asked. In contacting 1,000 likely independent voters, the firm asked them whether they agree that:

"We should repeal the Obama health care reform law, and replace it with a system that lowers costs, allows people to keep the coverage they have now, and give individuals the same tax breaks businesses get to provide health care insurance. Obama's law will drive health care costs through the roof and bankrupt the country."

To read the entire post click here.

Article: Polling Data Gives GOP A Message Lead

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 19:27:00 -0400

Recent polling data from a GOP group suggest that Dems face an uphill battle in selling voters on their arguments over the country's health care, energy and fiscal challenges leading up to the Nov. elections.

Resurgent Republic, a 501(c)(4) group headed by ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, GOP pollster Whit Ayers and GOP consultant Leslie Sanchez, is highlighting a poll they commissioned that tests messages on a number of policy proposals and finds widespread support for the GOP message on various aspects of those 3 issues.

Dems' best issue was education, which is far below the radar for most voters and a much lower priority than the issues on which the GOP is claiming an advantage, according to non-partisan polling data.

To read the entire article click here.

Article: The Night Beat: Name That Term

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 19:11:00 -0400

The folks from Resurgent Republic will release new polling tomorrow on oil drilling. RR is the GOP version of Democracy Corps; Whit Ayres, Ed Gillespie, and Leslie Sanchez designed the survey. The following two messages were tested with the sample:

"Congressman A says the Gulf oil spill shows the danger and enormous environmental damage of offshore oil drilling. We should stop any new offshore wells from being developed."

"Congressman B says we should not let one bad accident in the Gulf divert us from the importance of more offshore drilling to create jobs and make us less dependent on foreign oil."

By a 56 to 37 spread, folks sampled prefer the message of Congressman B, according to RR.

To read the entire post click here.

Article: For Congressional Dems, Time Is Almost Up

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 17:20:00 -0400

For months now, the alarm bells have been sounding for President Obama. First there was the drop in support among independents. Then his precipitous drop in support among white voters. Now comes the predictable news that Wall Street donors, sick of being used as political punching bags, are no longer lavishing campaign funds on Democrats.

But while these developments should be worrisome to the White House, they should be downright terrifying to congressional Democrats. Obama has time to right himself. For congressional Democrats, time has almost run out.

A series of focus groups in five states conducted last month for the conservative nonprofit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. The same can't be said of their feelings for congressional Democrats.

To read the entire article click here.

PollingAnalysis: Independents Support Conservative Policies in Health Care, Energy, and Fiscal Issues

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 00:44:00 -0400

Overview

With Independent voters siding overwhelmingly with Republican voters again in our latest survey, conservative and market-oriented policies now consistently trump the liberal and government-oriented policies pursued by President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. In three key policy areas – health care, energy, and fiscal issues – conservative policies are more popular than liberal ones, according to Resurgent Republic's analysis.

Resurgent Republic's most recent national survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted June 20 – 23, 2010.

Health Care

Likely voters agree that the health care reform law should be repealed, even in the face of a strong counterargument. The argument for keeping the reform law intact featured an attack on health insurance companies, but fell short. (It should be noted, however, that the repeal argument includes a conservative alternative to the status quo, not a return to it.) Voters agree that we should repeal the health care reform law by a 53 to 41 percent margin, including a 52 to 39 percent margin among Independents.

We should repeal the Obama health care reform law, and replace it with a system that lowers costs, allows people to keep the coverage they have now, and give individuals the same tax breaks businesses get to provide health care insurance. Obama’s law will drive health care costs through the roof and bankrupt the country.

Do voters believe health insurance should be sold across state lines? And how do these voters respond to medical malpractice lawsuits? Read the full report here.

Energy and the Environment

Voters support the continuation of offshore oil drilling despite the Gulf oil spill. The argument supporting offshore drilling, focused on jobs and energy independence, wins majority support over an argument against new offshore drilling, focused on threats to the environment, by a 56 to 37 percent margin, including a 56 to 36 percent margin among Independents. Despite living closer to the oil spill, voters in the South agree that offshore drilling should continue by a 60 to 33 percent margin, compared to a 56 to 40 percent margin in the West, a 54 to 36 percent margin in the Midwest, and a 53 to 42 percent margin in the Northeast.

Those who say we should not let one bad accident in the Gulf divert us from the importance of more offshore drilling to create jobs and make us less dependent on foreign oil.

Do likely voters believe a carbon tax, clean coal and nuclear power play a role in the nation’s energy strategy? Also are tax subsidies for energy worthwhile? Read the full report here.

Fiscal Issues

Likely voters say the federal government should freeze spending for five years. Even when voters are given a counter-argument that a spending freeze would mean deciding between cutting benefits or defense spending, they agree that a spending freeze is a good idea by a 54 to 38 percent margin, including a 52 to 35 percent margin among Independents.

We should freeze total federal spending at 2010 levels for the next five years... [to] get the budget deficit back under control, and stop bankrupting the country and mortgaging our children's future.

Do likely voters believe the capital gains tax should be raised? How do these voters respond to cutting the corporate tax rate, implementing a balanced budget amendment and income tax fairness? Read the full report here.

Education

Voters have a middle-of-the-road attitude when it comes to education, with arguments on either side splitting the electorate. For example, voters agree that the federal government should not set national education standards by a narrow 49 to 47 percent margin, (51 to 44 percent among Independents) given these statements.

The federal government has no business setting national education standards. Education is a state and local responsibility, and the states are best able to meet the needs of their own students.

What do likely voters think about sending federal education money to private schools and tying teacher pay to student performance? Read the full report here.

Conclusion

Voters seem not only to be rejecting big government policies in response to the actions of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress, but also seem ready to embrace conservative policies. That movement is driven by Independents, who have been moving away from liberal policy choices for more than a year. The Obama Administration’s policy choices have created very fertile ground for conservative alternatives this fall.

Read the full report here.

Article: Tea Party = Republican Party?

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 17:37:00 -0400

The scads of media coverage about the burgeoning "tea party" effort has focused heavily on the idea that those who identify themselves as part of the movement are political free agents -- dismissive of both parties and Washington in general.

New data out of Gallup suggests that premise isn't right, as nearly seven in 10 tea party supporters describe themselves as "conservative Republicans."

All told, nearly 80 percent of tea party supporters describe themselves as Republicans, while 15 percent say they are Democrats and just six percent are, in their own minds, "pure independents."

To read the rest of the article click here.

Article: Is health care getting more popular?

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 11:19:00 -0400

A new Kaiser Family Foundation national poll shows support for President Barack Obama's health care bill bumping up in a significant way over the past month, data that seems to affirm the idea pushed by Administration officials that the legislation will ultimately be a net political positive for their party.

Forty eight percent of adults tested in Kaiser's June survey had a favorable view of the law while 41 percent had an unfavorable view. That marks a reversal from the May Kaiser numbers where those who saw the legislation in a favorable light (41 percent) were outnumbered by those who viewed the law unfavorably (44 percent).

Interestingly, the favorable/unfavorable numbers for the health care law are remarkably consistent in the Kaiser numbers even when the sample is slimmed down to registered or even likely voters -- both of which are far more predictive of electoral outcomes than an "adults" sample.

Read the entire article here.

Article: Obama and the Fiscal 'Road to Hell'

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 09:13:00 -0400

At last week's G-20 meeting, President Barack Obama achieved a two-fer. He suffered a significant international defeat, and he increased the chances his party will suffer a major domestic one this fall.

Mr. Obama's international defeat was self-inflicted. He went to Toronto to press other major nations to do as he has done: Expand government spending, or suffer, in the president's words, "renewed economic hardship and recession."

Canada, Germany, Great Britain and most other countries declined Mr. Obama's invitation. The German economic minister "urgently" prodded America to cut spending at a press conference on June 21, prior to the G-20 meeting. The president of the European central bank took direct aim at Mr. Obama's argument, telling the Italian newspaper La Repubblica on June 16 that "the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect."

Read full article here.

Article: Obama the Edsel

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 08:12:00 -0400

Earlier this month, Resurgent Republic — an independent public-opinion-research group headed by former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie — conducted focus groups in five key House districts, measuring how independent voters and, separately, self-identified tea-party members felt about the direction of the country.

Bad news for President Obama and congressional Democrats is common these days, but these results unveiled Tuesday are simply dismal. Asked to compare Obama to a car, one Iowan chose an Edsel: “Something that had a lot of hype, but failed to live up to expectations.” Another older man described Obama as “a wrecked Ferrari, something that looked great to many people, but was now ruined.”

“In August 2009, [our focus groups found] there was a wait-and-see attitude towards the president. That has changed,” summarized Gillespie. “There is not only growing concern about spending, debt and the direction of economy but creeping doubts about the president’s leadership abilities, which is probably a more troublesome concern to the White House and the president’s supporters.”

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Article: Focus Groups Show Obama Losing Independents over Oil Spill

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 19:27:00 -0400

As oil continues to gush into the Gulf of Mexico, the results of a nationwide focus group effort indicate that Republicans aren’t the only ones questioning President Obama’s experience and ability to lead during a crisis: Independents are joining that chorus, too.

“Last year … there was still kind of a wait-and-see mentality amongst these voters toward the president,” long-time Republican strategist Ed Gillespie said of the Resurgent Republic focus group series of independent voters. “That has clearly changed.”

Resurgent Republic, a not-for-profit organization made up of high-profile Republicans, released the five-state focus group results Tuesday showing that the BP oil spill has independents concerned about how Obama will perform during a future crisis, such as a terrorist attack.

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Article: Independents Souring On Obama

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 19:12:00 -0400

A series of focus groups of voters in 5 states conducted for the conservative non-profit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. However, independents who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party movement, have "turned the page" on the president said GOP pollster Glen Bolger.

These groups, held in Des Moines, IA, Cincinnati, OH, Cherry Hill, NJ, Little Rock, AR and Orlando, FL, were comprised of registered or self-identified independents who said they were undecided on the congressional ballot test.

Bolger, who conducted the Des Moines group of Tea Party independents, described them as "more frustrated than angry" but said they had no "optimism or hope for the future."

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PollingAnalysis: Independents and Tea Partiers Express Similar Concerns over Federal Spending and Debt

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 15:26:00 -0400

PollingAnalysis: Less than Half of Voters Support Kagan Confirmation, Trouble Signs Seen in Past Stands

Thu, 24 Jun 2010 12:57:00 -0400

Overview

A plurality of likely voters in the November elections supports Elena Kagan’s confirmation, by a 46 to 28 percent margin with 26 percent undecided, according to Resurgent Republic's analysis. But her past positions on military recruitment while at Harvard and the District of Columbia’s handgun ban could harm that support, with undecided voters overwhelmingly saying they would be less likely to support a senator who voted to confirm Kagan on both issues.

Resurgent Republic’s most recent national survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted June 20 – 23, 2010.

Kagan Support

A plurality of voters supports Kagan’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, while 1 in 4 voters remain undecided. Independents support Kagan’s confirmation by a 40 to 27 percent margin.

President Obama has nominated Elena Kagan to the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you support or oppose the Senate confirming her to the Supreme Court?

Military Recruitment

Half the voters would be less likely to support a senator who votes to confirm Kagan in light of her stand on military recruitment while at Harvard, including Independents by a two-to-one margin, 50 to 25 percent. In light of this position, voters who are undecided regarding her confirmation would be less likely to support a senator who votes to confirm Kagan by nearly three-to-one (43 to 15 percent).

As Dean of Harvard Law School, Elena Kagan denied the military full access to recruit students to join the armed services because of the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy regarding gays in the military. Does her decision make you more likely or less likely to support a senator who votes to confirm her to the Supreme Court?

2nd Amendment

Voters would be less likely to support a senator who votes to confirm Kagan in light of her position on the DC handgun ban by a 49 to 28 percent margin, including 49 to 24 percent among Independents. In light of this position, voters who are undecided regarding her confirmation would be less likely to support a senator who votes to confirm Kagan by nearly three-to-one (45 to 14 percent).

As a law clerk to a Supreme Court justice, Elena Kagan said she was not sympathetic to claims that the District of Columbia's handgun ban violated a resident's constitutional rights. Does her position on that issue make you more likely or less likely to support a senator who votes to confirm her to the Supreme Court?

Political Climate

Nearly two-thirds of the electorate say the country is off on the wrong track. Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a 64 to 27 percent margin, including a 69 to 24 percent margin among absolutely certain voters and a 72 to 18 percent margin among Independents (a widening from 65 to 25 percent among Independents in April).

Barack Obama has a net favorable rating overall (49 to 45 percent) helped by an 89 to 8 percent rating among Democrats. But Independents give him a 45 to 47 percent rating and Republicans give him a 9 to 85 percent rating. Similarly, the President’s split job approval (49 to 48 percent) masks a 44 to 51 percent rating among Independents (10 to 87 percent among Republicans and 88 to 9 percent among Democrats).

PollingAnalysis: About

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 14:13:00 -0400

Article: Polls Turn Against Public Employee Unions

Thu, 20 May 2010 18:48:00 -0400

The idea that public employees have gold-plated benefits packages is, in a flagging economy, potentially toxic, prompting some public offici als to address the issue head on.

In one prominent example, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie kicked off a firestorm of protest when he proposed that the state’s teachers begin making contributions to their pension plans. So far Christie, who is refusing to back down despite threats from teachers’ union officials, seems to be winning the argument because, with national unemployment near 10 percent and federal and state deficits at record levels, folks who are tightening their belts at home are put off by what they view as the selfishness of public employees who refuse to give even an inch.

This sentiment is not confined to New Jersey. A recent national survey by Resurgent Republic, an organization started by former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, found that voters are increasingly concerned about the high levels of pay and benefits that federal employees enjoy, which are now on average higher than what private sector workers earn.

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Article: The Party of Debt

Thu, 20 May 2010 10:19:00 -0400

Two seemingly unrelated news stories unfolded in Washington last week -- developments that could further stoke the flames of voter discontent across America. Taken together, these reports could also label the Democrats with an ugly and hard to erase moniker heading into the November elections: They are now the Party of Debt.

The first piece of news concerned Congressional Democrats' plan to forgo passing a budget blueprint this year – an unprecedented display of fiscal policy malpractice.

A January 2010 Congressional Research Service report demonstrates that only four times in the past 35 years have lawmakers not adopted a concurrent budget resolution (a document projecting long term spending and revenue goals). And even when the two legislative bodies have failed to reach an agreement, in every year since the enactment of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, at least the House has produced its own blueprint and given members a chance to vote on it. How do we get our fiscal house in order if lawmakers can’t even develop a plan?

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PollingAnalysis: Independents Move Closer to Republicans on One-Party Government, Fiscal and National Security Issues

Tue, 04 May 2010 09:10:00 -0400

Overview

In the year since Resurgent Republic conducted its inaugural survey in April 2009, President Obama and Democrats in Congress have seen dramatic deterioration of their public standing, driven by disaffection from Independent voters who have steadily moved toward siding with Republican policymakers on fiscal, domestic and national security policies. Today, by more than a two-to-one margin, self-identified Independents think “we need more Republicans in Congress to act as a check and balance on runaway Washington government that is bankrupting the country and mortgaging our children's future” versus those who think “more Republicans in Congress will lead to more gridlock and stand in the way of President Obama's agenda to create jobs and make needed reforms to our economy.”

In last year’s initial survey, President Obama enjoyed a 61 to 32 percent approval rating (+29), with 59 percent of Independents approving of his job performance versus 32 percent disapproving (+27). Today the President’s approval rating has fallen to 48 to 48 percent, including a 52 to 41 percent disapproval rating among Independents, a 29-point swing overall and a 38-point swing among Independents.

In that same period, the favorability rating of Democrats in Congress dropped from 45 percent favorable versus 42 percent unfavorable (+3) to 41 percent favorable versus 50 percent unfavorable (-9) while Republicans increased in favorability from 37 to 47 percent to 40 to 47 percent – still unfavorable, but now less so than Democrats. And Republicans hold a four-point advantage in the congressional generic ballot of 42 to 38 percent (which Resurgent Republic did not test last April).

Much of this change seems rooted in the Economy/Jobs/Government Spending/Health Care issue areas which remain of most concern to voters (a combined 68 percent in 2009 and 62 percent in 2010), where voter attitudes – and particularly those of critical Independents – have moved toward a more conservative perspective.

More than a month since its passage, predictions by Democratic leaders that the health care reform bill would become popular with voters once passed have not proved to be accurate, despite the White House’s concerted effort to tout the bill. Overwhelming majorities of likely voters say the health care reform plan will increase their premiums, their health care costs, their taxes, and the federal deficit, while simultaneously decreasing their quality of care. Only 22 percent of voters support leaving the bill in place, while 72 percent of voters support amending and modifying it (37 percent) or repealing and replacing it (35 percent).

Voters reject the idea of a value added tax by a margin of more than three-to-one, are seemingly ambivalent at this point about financial services reform legislation (a slight majority says they have not heard enough to form an opinion), and are divided on immigration reform legislation.

By a margin of 62 to 19 percent, voters think that it’s a bad thing for the country that the average pay and benefit package of federal government workers is now higher than the average pay and benefit package of private sector workers. The fact that 19 percent answered “don’t know” to the question indicates that further public discussion of the fact may be warranted.

On most issues across the policy spectrum, Independents approach a two-to-one alignment with the conservative or Republican perspective over the liberal or Democratic perspective. That mirrors the margins for winning Republican statewide candidates in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts in the last seven months, and indicates the potential for significant Democratic losses this fall if they do not make gains among Independents.

The Political Climate and One-Party Control of Government

Voters are more likely to say the country is on the wrong track now than they were a year ago. Likely voters say the country is on the wrong track by a 59 to 33 percent margin compared to a 50 to 40 percent margin a year ago. Independents say the country is on the wrong track by a 65 to 25 percent margin, compared to a 52 to 34 percent margin a year ago. The economy remains the most important issue (38 percent now versus 57 percent last year), with increased mentions for health care (16 percent now versus 5 percent last year) and government spending (8 percent now versus 6 percent last year). Concern about spending is similar to that about health care for Independents (11 and 12 percent, respectively).
Republicans are more likely to vote in the 2010 election than either Independents or Democrats. Republicans currently hold an advantage in intensity, with 64 percent of Republicans saying they are absolutely certain to vote in the elections for Congress this year, compared to 59 percent of Independents and 58 percent of Democrats.
President Obama’s job approval rating seems to be hardening at below 50 percent. After posting a lofty 61 to 32 percent approval rating last April (59 to 32 percent among Independents), the President now draws a 48 to 48 percent split – including a 52 to 41 percent disapproval margin among Independents. This result is consistent with a number of recent nationwide surveys.
Democrats in Congress are now viewed less favorably than Republicans in Congress. Democrats in Congress hold a 50 to 41 percent unfavorable image, after holding a 45 to 42 percent favorable image last April. Independents view Democrats in Congress unfavorably by a 55 to 31 percent margin (45 to 39 percent unfavorable last year). The 47 to 40 percent unfavorable rating for Republicans (52 to 34 percent among Independents) is similar to the rating last April (47 to 37 percent overall, including 47 to 32 percent among Independents).
Republicans have an advantage on the generic ballot. Voters prefer Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by a 42 to 38 percent margin, including a 39 to 27 percent margin among Independents.
Majorities of voters want more Republicans in Congress to serve as a check and balance on runaway Washington government.
Congressman A says more Republicans in Congress will lead to more gridlock and stand in the way of President Obama's agenda to create jobs and make needed reforms to our economy.

Congressman B says we need more Republicans in Congress to act as a check and balance on runaway Washington government that is bankrupting the country and mortgaging our children's future.

A majority of voters agrees that more Republicans are needed to provide a check and balance by 51 to 40 percent, including a two-to-one margin among Independents (61 to 28 percent).

Fiscal Issues

Three-fifths of voters are very concerned about the current level of spending and debt. Sixty-two percent of likely voters say they are very concerned about the federal government’s current level of spending and debt, including 84 percent of Republicans, 64 percent of Independents, and 38 percent of Democrats.
Likely voters think the federal government’s priority should be spending less to reduce the deficit, and think the stimulus package wasted money that had to be borrowed, with a two-to-one margin among Independents. By a 59 to 34 percent margin, voters say “spending less to reduce the deficit” should be a higher priority than “spending more to help the economy recover,” including a 63 to 30 percent margin among Independents and an 84 to 12 percent margin among Republicans. Democrats disagree by a 59 to 32 percent margin. By a similar 56 to 33 percent margin, voters say the $787 billion federal stimulus package “wasted billions of dollars that the country had to borrow on unnecessary spending programs” rather than “protected or created millions of jobs in both the public and private sector.”
Voters think a value added tax, or VAT, is a bad idea for America. Respondents were asked which of the following statements they agree with:
A value added tax is a good idea. It could raise billions of dollars in new revenue for the federal government, reduce the federal deficit without raising income taxes, and would be paid only by people who purchase certain products.

A value added tax is a bad idea for America. It would be a massive hidden tax that would not appear on a bill, it would increase the price of almost everything, it would be paid primarily by the middle class, and it would hurt our economic recovery.

Voters think a VAT is a bad idea by 67 to 21 percent, including 53 to 31 percent among Democrats, 67 to 19 percent among Independents, and 82 to 12 percent among Republicans.
Voters think higher average pay and benefit packages for federal government workers than for private sector workers is a bad thing for our country. Overall, voters say having higher average pay and benefit packages for federal workers than for private sector workers is a bad thing by a 62 to 19 percent margin, including a 47 to 30 percent margin among Democrats, a 65 to 14 percent margin among Independents, and a 77 to 12 percent margin among Republicans.
Voters believe the federal government has been squandering money on pork-barrel projects, bailouts, and big spending programs. When asked whether “the federal government is squandering money on pork-barrel projects, bank and auto bailouts, and big spending programs that create few private sector jobs,” or “the federal government has to do more during times of economic crisis, and spending by the government stimulates the economy and creates jobs,” voters prefer the first statement by 54 to 40 percent, larger than the margin of 51 to 43 percent on the same question a year ago. Republicans think the federal government is squandering money by 78 to 18 percent, as do Independents by 56 to 38 percent. Democrats disagree by 65 to 27 percent.
However, Independents agree more with Democrats that the Bush Administration is more responsible for the current state of the economy than the Obama Administration. Echoing a finding from last December’s survey of voters 55 and older, these voters blame the Bush Administration more than the Obama Administration for the economy, by a 50 to 32 percent margin. This margin is 50 to 24 percent among Independents and 79 to 15 percent among Democrats, with Republicans blaming the Obama Administration by a 56 to 18 percent margin.

Health Care

Voters oppose the health care reform plan that Congress passed, with opposition more intense than support. Voters overall oppose the plan by a 49 to 44 percent margin, including 41 percent strong opposition and 25 percent strong support. Independents join Republicans in opposition (53 to 38 percent and 89 to 8 percent, respectively) while Democrats support the plan (82 to 12 percent). Indeed, among voters who name health care as the most important issue, 54 percent disapprove of the plan passed (46 percent strongly disapprove) and 41 percent approve (22 percent strongly approve). Intensity around the health care issue clearly remains on the side of those opposed to the bill.
Overwhelming majorities of likely voters say the health care reform plan will increase their premiums, their health care costs, their taxes, and the federal deficit, while simultaneously decreasing their quality of care. Voters say the plan will increase their premiums by a 60 to 11 percent margin (64 to 8 among Independents), their health care costs by a 61 to 13 percent margin (62 to 12 among Independents), the federal deficit by a 70 to 8 percent margin (76 to 5 among Independents), and their taxes by a 73 to 4 percent margin (78 to 2 among Independents). Interestingly, pluralities of Democrats agree that those four items will be increased as well. Voters overall say the plan will decrease the quality of health care they receive by a 44 to 22 percent margin, including a 76 to 11 percent margin among Republicans and a 48 to 16 percent margin among Independents, while Democrats disagree by a 34 to 13 percent margin (46 percent of Democrats say it will have no effect on quality).
Voters split between wanting Congress to “amend and modify” the plan and “repeal and replace” the plan. Thirty-seven percent of voters want Congress to amend and modify the plan (26 percent among Republicans, 43 percent among Independents, and 44 percent among Democrats), 35 percent want Congress to repeal and replace the plan (67 percent among Republicans, 36 percent among Independents, and 5 percent among Democrats), and 22 percent want Congress to leave the plan in place (4 percent among Republicans, 16 percent among Independents, and 43 percent among Democrats).

Immigration Reform

Likely voters split on what legislation they prefer to address immigration reform. Respondents were asked which of three types of legislation they prefer for immigration reform:
A bill that concentrates on border security but does not include a temporary-worker program or a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who are already here, because we have to secure the border first before we can think about other solutions.

A bill that includes border security and a temporary-worker program, because we have to address the need for workers by U.S. employers if we are ever going to get control of the border.

A bill that includes border security, a temporary-worker program, and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who are already here, because any solution to the immigration problem must deal with the illegal immigrants who are already in America.

Forty-three percent of voters prefer a comprehensive bill with a path to citizenship, but 48 percent of voters prefer something short of that, with 24 percent preferring a bill that includes a temporary-worker program and 24 percent preferring a bill that focuses on border security first. Independents mirror the overall result (43 percent for a path to citizenship, 27 percent for a temporary-worker program and 23 percent for border security first) while a majority of Democrats prefers a path to citizenship (54 percent, with 23 percent for a temporary-worker program and 17 percent for border security first). Republicans split among the three options: 35 percent for border security first, 24 percent for a temporary- worker program, and 31 percent for a path to citizenship.
Given two statements on immigration reform, voters prefer the statement that includes a path to citizenship. Respondents were asked which of the following statements regarding a path to citizenship they agree with:
Congressman A says illegal immigrants who have no criminal background and meet strict guidelines like registration, paying a fine, and learning English should be allowed to earn citizenship over the course of several years.

Congressman B says immigration reform should not include a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. There should be no reward for illegal behavior.

Voters overall favor the path to citizenship with these conditions by a 54 to 42 percent margin, including a 54 to 43 percent margin among Independents and a 64 to 31 percent margin among Democrats. Republicans think that there should not be a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants by a 58 to 40 percent margin.

Climate Change

One area where Independents align more closely with Democrats is on perceptions about climate change (the subject, not legislation). Overall 52 percent of likely voters think climate change is happening and human activity is a significant cause, 16 percent think it is happening but human activity is not a significant cause, and 26 percent believe it is not happening. But a plurality of Republicans (49 percent) thinks climate change is not happening, while a majority of Independents (53 percent) and Democrats (76 percent) thinks climate change is happening and is caused by human activity. However, there has been some movement on this front since April 2009, when 58 percent of likely voters said climate change is happening and human activity is a significant cause (a six-point drop) and 20 percent said it is not happening (a six-point increase).

National Security Issues

Voters say President Obama has improved America’s standing in the world. By a 50 to 45 percent margin, including a 49 to 46 percent margin among Independents, voters say the President has improved the country’s standing in the eyes of the world.
Just as a year ago, voters think holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay helps keep America safe rather than undermines our values by nearly a two-to-one margin. Voters agree that holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay “helps protect America by keeping terrorists in custody who would kill Americans overseas” rather than “weakens America’s moral authority and isn’t in keeping with our values” by a 60 to 32 percent margin. This result is essentially unchanged from the 58 to 33 percent margin seen last April.
Voters overall agree that civilian trials for suspected 9/11 terrorists are a bad idea, in opposition to the Administration’s current policy. Respondents were asked which of the following statements they agree with regarding civilian trials:
Congressman A says putting suspected 9/11 terrorists on trial in civilian courts instead of a military tribunal is a good idea, because it shows that America provides the same rights to everyone, and a visible, open trial will prove to the world any convictions are deserved.

Congressman B says putting suspected 9/11 terrorists on trial in civilian courts instead of a military tribunal is a bad idea, because it will expose confidential intelligence-gathering methods, and gives terrorists captured on the battlefield the same rights as American citizens.

Voters agree that civilian trials are a bad idea by a 56 to 36 percent margin overall, including a 61 to 32 percent margin among Independents and a 76 to 20 percent margin among Republicans (Democrats say civilian trials are a good idea by a 55 to 36 percent margin).

Message Recommendations

The following messages will resonate strongly with the American public:

Democrats in control of both the White House and Congress have concentrated too much power in one party's hands. Operating without a check and balance on their actions, Congress and the White House are passing too many taxes, too much spending, and too much debt instead of focusing on job creation.
A value added tax is a bad policy our nation cannot afford. It will add a massive hidden tax on families, increase the price of almost everything and hurt job creation.
The health care reform plan passed by Congress will increase premiums, health care costs, taxes, and the federal deficit, while decreasing quality of care.
Holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay helps protect America by keeping terrorists in custody who would kill Americans overseas.
Providing 9/11 terrorists an open trial in civilian court is a bad idea. It gives terrorists the same rights as American citizens and weakens our national security.

Methodology

This survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted April 25-27, 2010. Respondents were selected randomly from a random-digit-dialing sample including both cell phone and landline telephone numbers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote in the county in which they live. Quotas were set for state, age, and race reflecting previous turnout; and the sample was minimally weighted to reflect the Pollster.com average partisan balance for registered and likely voter samples of 36 percent Democrat and 32 percent Republican.

The margins of error for responses with an even split – 50 percent for one response and 50 percent for another response – is ±3.10 percent for the full sample, ±5.44 percent for Republicans, ±5.65 percent for Independents, and ±5.39 percent for Democrats. The margin of error is smaller when one response receives a higher level of support. For example, the margin of error is ±2.68 percent when 75 percent of respondents in the full sample choose one response and 25 percent choose another response.

PollingAnalysis: Resurgent Republic One-Year Anniversary

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 14:02:00 -0400

PollingAnalysis: Hispanic Voters Align with Conservative Fiscal and National Security Policies

Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:34:00 -0400

Despite being more favorable to Democrats than Republicans, Hispanic voters are open to persuasion this November due to concern over current Democrat policies on spending, debt and national security, according to Resurgent Republic’s latest national survey among 800 registered likely Hispanic voters conducted March 7-10, 2010.

Signifying a potential shift in the national electorate, Hispanic voters are troubled by the direction of the country and very concerned about the economy. Hispanic voters are responsive to conservative fiscal messages, centered on the reduction of spending and record deficits. On health care reform, they believe President Obama’s top priority is increasing coverage while their own priority is lowering costs, a noteworthy disconnect after a year-long debate.

This demographic group is also skeptical about two of President Obama’s key national security policies, closing the facility at Guantanamo Bay and putting 9-11 terrorists on trial in New York City instead of a military tribunal.

There are also some notable areas of concern for Republicans in this survey. Hispanic voters are more likely to identify as Democrats, and they have solid favorable views of President Obama and Democrats in Congress. In addition, Hispanic voters are more likely to give President Obama the benefit of the doubt as a majority believes he has met or exceeded their expectations since taking office. On immigration reform, a majority of Hispanic voters favor a comprehensive solution and do not believe Democrats plan to use immigration reform as a political issue.

Hispanic voters are very concerned about the direction of the country and are very worried about the national economy. A majority (50 percent) of Latino voters believe that the country is on the wrong track, including 40 percent who “strongly” believe this. The intensity of this opposition is notable, with almost twice as many Latinos “strongly” thinking wrong track as those who think the country is “strongly” headed in the right direction.

They overwhelmingly believe the top problem facing the country is the economy/unemployment/better job. Fully 51 percent of Hispanic voters name this as their top issue of concern. Health care is the only other issue that reaches double digit voter concern, being mentioned by 15 percent of Hispanic voters.
On economic issues, fiscally conservative messages centered on the reduction of spending and record debt resonate strongly with Hispanic voters. Offered two viewpoints on what should be the higher priority for the federal government – spending more to help the economy recover or spending less to reduce the budget deficit, a majority (54 percent) of Hispanic voters select less spending. An overwhelming majority of Republicans (80 percent) and solid majority of Independents (57 percent) select less spending. Even among Democrats, more spending receives just 49 percent support.

Asked to rate their level of concern about government spending, a majority (56 percent) of Hispanic voters say they are “very concerned” about the current level of government spending and debt and another 31 percent rate themselves as “somewhat concerned.” This anxiety crosses all party lines as a majority of Republicans (83 percent), a majority of Independents (58 percent), and a plurality of Democrats (45 percent) say the current government spending and debt levels make them “very concerned.”

Hispanic voters were offered two choices about stimulus spending:

Congressman A says the stimulus spending is working, and should continue to be spent as originally authorized, OR

Congressman B says the stimulus spending is not working, and unspent funds should be returned to reduce the deficit
By a 51 to 43 percent, Hispanic voters agree with Congressman B that stimulus spending is not working, including 34 percent who “strongly” agree. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans and 60 percent of Independents agree that stimulus spending is not working, while 57 percent of Democrats believe it is working.

On the issue of the federal debt, the two choices were:

Congressman A says the nation’s high level of debt is a temporary response to an economic crisis, and can only be addressed after the economy turns around, OR

Congressman B says the nation’s high level of debt is a serious burden that will limit economic growth in this country for our children and grandchildren, and must be addressed now.

A strong majority (61 percent) of Hispanic voters select that the debt is a serious burden, including 45 percent who “strongly” believe this. The argument made by Congressman B wins majority support among all partisan groups, carrying 79 percent of Republicans, 64 percent of Independents, 53 percent of Democrats.

A majority of Hispanic voters have health insurance and believe that Obama does not share their top priority for health care reform. Overall, 65 percent of Hispanics report having health insurance coverage for all members of their family and another 20 percent report that some members of their family have health insurance coverage.

Asked their main priority when it comes to reforming health care, a plurality (46 percent) of Hispanic voters say it is to “lower the cost of health care for all Americans.” By party, a majority (59 percent) of Republicans and a plurality (49 percent) of Independents select lower cost.

However, a strong majority (58 percent) of Hispanic voters believe that the top priority for Obama is universal coverage. This means that overall, fully 57% of Hispanic voters believe that Obama is pursuing a priority on health care reform that is different from their own.

Providing federal funding for abortion has become an integral part of the health care debate. A majority (55 percent) of Hispanics identify themselves as pro-life, including 48 percent of Hispanic voters who hold this position “strongly.” Government funding for abortions will be a significant concern to many of these voters.
Hispanic voters are supportive of conservative viewpoints on national security. Asked to assess the impact of Obama’s national security and foreign relations policies on the nation’s safety, 37 percent believe his policies have had no effect, 36 percent believe his policies have made the nation safer, and 22 percent believe the nation is less safe. Hispanic voters did express disagreement with two of President Obama’s central tenets on national security.

On the issue of holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Hispanic voters were given these two options:

Congressman A says holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay weakens America’s moral authority and isn’t in keeping with our values, OR

Congressman B says holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay helps protect America by keeping terrorists in custody who would kill Americans overseas.

Hispanic voters prefer Congressman B’s more conservative argument, 62 to 32 percent. Congressman B also garnered majority support among all three partisan groups, earning 83 percent of Republicans, 64 percent of Independents, and 54 percent of Democrats.

On the issue of holding terrorism trials in New York City, Hispanic voters were asked to choose between the following statements:

Congressman A says putting suspected 9-11 terrorists on trial in New York City instead of a military tribunal is a good idea, because it shows that America provides the same rights to everyone, including those suspected of the worst crimes, and a visible, open trial will prove to the world any convictions are deserved, OR

Congressman B says putting suspected 9-11 terrorists on trial in New York City instead of a military tribunal is a bad idea, because it elevates New York City as a terrorism target, will expose confidential intelligence-gathering methods, and gives terrorists captured on the battlefield the same rights as American citizens.

Again, Hispanic voters agree with Congressman B’s more conservative policy and think putting 9-11 terrorists on trial in New York City is a bad idea, 54 to 39 percent overall, with support of 74 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of Independents. Democrats favor the more liberal argument 48 to 44 percent.
Hispanic voters are open to receiving communication from elected officials in a variety of ways. A majority (55 percent) of Hispanics report that they use the Internet to get their news either almost every day (38 percent) or at least once a week (17 percent).

Also these voters rate a variety of contact methods as “extremely” or “very” important.
A majority of Hispanic voters identify as Democrats and hold favorable images of both President Obama and Democrats in Congress. Fifty-one percent of Hispanic voters identify as Democrats, with 35 percent considered strong Democrats. On an assessment of how President Obama has done as President, 55 percent say Obama’s performance has been “about the same” as their expectations. On a name identification series, Barack Obama (69 percent favorable) and the Democrats in Congress (55 percent favorable) both enjoy a majority favorable rating. Among the other figures tested, Nancy Pelosi has a plurality favorable rating (43 percent favorable) while Harry Reid has a plurality unfavorable rating (27 percent unfavorable). The Republicans in Congress have a majority unfavorable rating (51 percent unfavorable) with three times as many Hispanic voters holding a “very” unfavorable view (30 percent) compared to “very” favorable view (10 percent). Among Independents, however, the favorability rating for Republicans in Congress is split, 41 to 42 percent.
Hispanic voters favor a comprehensive, pragmatic approach to immigration and do not believe that the Democrats are using immigration reform as a political issue. Hispanic voters are offered these two choices regarding priorities for immigration reform:

Congressman A says immigration reform should focus on several items including securing the border, and reforming immigration quotas to meet labor demand, OR

Congressman B says a physical barrier along the U.S.-Mexico border should be completed before any other immigration reforms are considered.

Two-thirds (66 percent) of Hispanic voters select focusing on several items, including 40 percent who “strongly” select this option. A majority of all three partisan groups support Congressman A, 56 percent of Republicans, 62 percent of Independents and 73 percent of Democrats.

The two choices offered on the issue of temporary worker programs are:

Congressman A says we should consider reforms to temporary worker programs, based on the needs of those businesses that use these programs, OR

Congressman B says all temporary worker programs should be suspended. There are already too many Americans looking for work.

Sixty-one percent (61 percent) of Hispanic voters select reforming temporary worker programs, including 36 percent who “strongly” hold this view.

On the issue of immigration quotas, the two options offered are:

Congressman A says our immigration system needs to have the flexibility to adjust immigration quotas to best serve the needs of the country, OR

Congressman B says no change in the current immigration quotas is needed.

Fully 69 percent of Hispanic voters agree that the immigration system needs flexibility to adjust quotas, including 63 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of Independents, and 75 percent of Democrats.

Regarding a path to citizenship for illegal immigrations, the choices offered are:

Congressman A says illegal immigrants who have no criminal background and meet strict guidelines like registration, paying a fine, and learning English should be allowed to earn citizenship over the course of several years, OR

Congressman B says immigration reform should not include a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. There should be no reward for illegal behavior.

Seventy percent (70 percent) of the Hispanic electorate supports illegal immigrants being allowed to earn a path to citizenship, including 53 percent who “strongly” support this argument. A majority of all three partisan groups support Congressman A, 62 percent of Republicans, 62 percent of Independents, and 77 percent of Democrats.

The options offered regarding timing for immigration reform are:

Congressman A says now is a good time to pass immigration reform because the weak economy is not driving so many illegal immigrants to our country and many have actually left, OR

Congressman B says now is not the time to pass immigration reform legislation, when our economy is doing poorly and so many Americans are out of work.

By 56 to 37 percent, Hispanic voters agree with Congressman A that now is a good time for immigration reform, including 50 percent of Republicans, 52 percent of Independents, and 61 percent of Democrats.

On the issue of dealing with illegal immigrants currently here, the options given are:

Congressman A says immigration reform should focus on finding a humane approach to dealing with the 12 million immigrants living in the United States so that they can be brought out of the shadows and live without fear of mistreatment, OR

Congressman B says immigration reform will cause the United States to be overrun by illegal immigrants, overwhelming schools, hospitals, roads, and jails.

Seven-in-ten (69 percent) Hispanic voters believe that reform should focus on a humane approach for dealing with the 12 million illegal immigrants, including 52 percent who “strongly” support this option. Among the partisan groups, 53 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of Independents, and 79 percent of Democrats support Congressman A.

Despite these pragmatic sentiments about immigration reform, 55 percent of Hispanic voters say illegal immigrants should not receive medical and health benefits from the government. Fully 76 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Independents agree, while a plurality of Democrats (49 percent) believe illegal immigrants should receive these benefits.

Despite this enthusiasm, Hispanic voters are closely divided (47 to 47 percent) when asked if President Obama has broken his promise to pass immigration reform and when asked if Obama is delaying immigration reform to keep other Democratic interest groups happy (46 percent agree to 48 percent disagree). In addition, a majority of Hispanic voters (57 percent) disagree with the assertion that Democrats in Congress and President Obama plan to use immigration reform only as a political issue and never intend to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

The following messages will be well received by Hispanic voters:

Congress’ top priority should be to focus on turning the economy around and creating new and better jobs. More federal spending increases the deficit and is not a jobs plan.
The reckless spending and debt of the Democrat-controlled Congress is an immediate threat to our children and grandchildren and must be addressed now.
President Obama’s top priority for health care reform should be to lower the cost of health care, not increase coverage.
Our national security policies should keep terrorists who want to kill Americans in custody at Guantanamo Bay.
9-11 terrorists should be denied the same rights as American citizens and brought to justice in a military tribunal.

Methodology

All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of N=800 registered “likely” Hispanic voters nationwide. Responses to this survey were gathered March 7-10, 2010. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is ± 3.5% in 19 of 20 cases.

PollingAnalysis: Older Independents View Republicans in Congress More Favorably than Democrats

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:20:00 -0500

Overview

Voters 55 and older are now extremely concerned about the federal government’s current level of spending and debt. Since Resurgent Republic’s first survey in April, we have been noting the extent to which budgetary and fiscal issues have been driving Independents away from Democrats and toward Republicans. That is clearly the case with voters 55 and older, a cohort where Independents look far more like Republicans than Democrats on budgetary and fiscal issues.

On national security, voters 55 and older strongly support President Obama’s decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. But they are split on whether his national security policies have made America safer, and they intensely oppose his decisions to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility and to try 9-11 terrorists in New York City.

Congressional debates over fiscal issues, health care, and national security have led to Republicans in Congress being rated comparably to Democrats in Congress among all voters 55 and older. Moreover, Independent voters in this age cohort now rate Democrats in Congress significantly more negatively than Republicans.

Resurgent Republic conducted its latest survey Sunday through Wednesday, December 6-9, 2009 with 1000 registered voters 55 and older. We focused on older voters because turnout among this group historically surpasses that of younger voters in non-presidential election years like 2010, and they are the voters most interested in the health-care debate dominating Congress at the moment.

The party balance among voters 55 and older stands remarkably close to that of registered voters overall. Democratic identifiers enjoy a seven-point advantage over Republicans in this sample, at 32 to 25 percent. The Pollster.com average of recent surveys shows a Democratic advantage among all registered and likely voters of five points. President Obama's favorable rating is 53 percent among these voters, almost identical to his 54 percent favorable rating nationally in the Pollster.com average. But the Democratic party ID advantage and President Obama's majority favorable rating does not translate into support for Democratic policies among voters 55 and older.

Among voters 55 and older, the three most important problems facing the country are the economy, health care, and government spending. Twenty-seven percent of these voters say the economy concerns them most, 18 percent say health care, and 10 percent say government spending and the deficit. Republicans and Independents indicate higher levels of concern about government spending and the deficit (20 and 12 percent respectively) than do Democrats (3 percent).

Older voters say Republicans are better able than Democrats to handle the problem they are most concerned about by a narrow margin, with a nearly two-to-one margin among Independents. Overall, voters 55 and older say Republicans are better able to handle the issue they are most concerned about by 34 to 31 percent. The three-point margin for Republicans is remarkably close to the two-point generic ballot preference for Republicans among all registered voters in Pollster.com’s average as of December 11 (43 to 41 percent). Not surprisingly, Republican voters in this sample trust Republicans (75 to 2 percent), and Democratic voters trust Democrats (69 to 3 percent). But tellingly for the 2010 elections, Independents trust Republicans by a 35 to 19 percent margin, 39 to 19 percent among Independents who say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Among voters 55 and older, Republicans in Congress are now rated comparably to Democrats in Congress, with Republicans rated significantly better than Democrats among Independents in this age group. Among all voters this age, the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Republicans in Congress are 46/42 percent, versus 44/45 percent for Democrats. Among Independent voters 55 and older, the ratings are 44/41 percent for Republicans and 36/52 percent for Democrats.

Fiscal Issues

When it comes to how voters think their concerns should be addressed, the findings are encouraging for those advocating policies of less government spending and intervention.

Two-thirds of voters 55 and older are very concerned about the current level of spending and debt. Overall, 68 percent of these voters are very concerned about current spending and debt, a figure that climbs to 90 percent when including voters who are somewhat concerned about spending and debt. By party, 93 percent of Republicans are very concerned (5 percent somewhat concerned), 71 percent of Independents are very concerned (21 percent somewhat concerned), and almost half of Democrats are very concerned (47 percent, with an additional 36 percent somewhat concerned).
A majority of older voters prefers spending less to reduce the budget deficit rather than spending more to help the economy recover. Fifty-one percent want to spend less, versus 40 percent who want to spend more. Democrats want to spend more by 62 to 28 percent, while Republicans and Independents want to spend less by large margins, 76 to 20 percent and 54 to 35 percent respectively. At this point, older voters clearly want their national leaders to focus on controlling spending rather than adding to the deficit or increasing the debt.
Majorities of voters 55 and older reject greater government involvement in the economy. We noted in April that all registered voters preferred smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes to larger government with more services and higher taxes by a 69 to 21 percent margin. Today, voters 55 and older say they prefer smaller government by a 70 to 20 percent margin, including a 75 to 14 percent margin among Independents. Similarly, by a 53 to 43 percent margin, older voters think “government is trying to do more things than it can do well, things that should be left to the private sector and individuals,” rather than “government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people.” Democrats think government should do more by 70 to 26 percent, but Republicans (by 76 to 22 percent) and Independents (by 61 to 34 percent) think government is trying to do more things than it can do well.
Strong majorities of these voters agree with conservative statements regarding federal spending and debt, including the statement that the deficit must be addressed now. Independents 55 and older are far closer to Republicans on these statements, with Democrats isolated in choosing the more liberal argument.

These voters agree that “the nation’s high level of debt is a serious burden that will limit economic growth in this country for our children and grandchildren, and must be addressed now” by a 63 to 31 percent margin, including an 84 to 13 percent margin among Republicans and a 65 to 29 percent margin among Independents. Democrats think that “the nation’s high level of debt is a temporary response to an economic crisis, and can only be addressed after the economy turns around” by a 48 to 44 percent margin.

Even when presented with the rationale for higher spending at the beginning of 2009 – that the federal budget brought us back from the brink of a depression and was the right thing to do for the good of the country – voters 55 and older think that “the federal budget spends too much, taxes too much, and borrows too much” by a 60 to 35 percent margin, including a 65 to 31 percent margin among Independents and an 84 to 15 percent margin among Republicans. Democrats think that “the federal budget brought us back from the brink of a depression” by a 57 to 37 percent margin.

These voters think that “the stimulus spending is not working, and unspent funds should be returned to reduce the deficit” rather than “the stimulus spending is working and should continue to be spent as originally authorized” by a 57 to 36 percent margin, including an 82 to 14 percent margin among Republicans and a 62 to 32 percent margin among Independents. Democrats think the stimulus is working by a margin of 58 to 32 percent.

Voters 55 and older think that “federal spending creates mainly government jobs, and makes it harder to generate more desirable private sector jobs,” rather than “federal spending is creating many government and private sector jobs, and avoiding numerous layoffs in state and local governments,” by 53 to 34 percent, including 76 to 16 percent among Republicans and 59 to 28 percent among Independents. Democrats once again stand isolated in thinking that federal spending is creating more jobs by a 57 to 28 percent margin.
Independents do agree with Democrats that the Bush Administration is more responsible for the current state of the economy than the Obama Administration. These voters still blame the Bush Administration more than the Obama Administration for the economy, by a 47 to 34 percent margin. This margin is 42 to 35 percent among Independents and 82 to 11 percent among Democrats, with Republicans blaming the Obama Administration by a 62 to 13 percent margin. This is a number that warrants watching over the course of 2010.

National Security Issues

Voters 55 and older approve of President Obama’s decision to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. These voters approve of the President’s decision to send more troops to Afghanistan by a 62 to 32 percent margin, including 76 to 19 percent among Republicans, 61 to 32 percent among Independents, and 52 to 43 percent among Democrats.
By a 2-to-1 ratio, these voters disapprove of President Obama’s decision to close Guantanamo. These voters believe that “holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay helps protect America by keeping terrorists in custody who would kill Americans overseas” by a 62 to 29 percent margin over the statement that “holding prisoners at Guantanamo Bay weakens America’s moral authority and isn’t in keeping with our values.” Republicans and Independents overwhelmingly agree with the first statement by 87 to 9 percent and 64 to 28 percent respectively. Democrats narrowly prefer the second statement by 45 to 41 percent.
Voters 55 and older also disagree with the President’s decision to try suspected 9-11 terrorists in New York City. Given the following statements about trials for terror suspects:

Congressman A says putting suspected 9-11 terrorists on trial in New York City instead of a military tribunal is a good idea, because it shows that America provides the same rights to everyone, including those suspected of the worst crimes, and a visible, open trial will prove to the world any convictions are deserved.

Congressman B says putting suspected 9-11 terrorists on trial in New York City instead of a military tribunal is a bad idea, because it elevates New York City as a terrorism target, will expose confidential intelligence-gathering methods, and gives terrorists captured on the battlefield the same rights as American citizens.

Fifty-nine percent of voters 55 and older agree with Congressman B that suspected 9-11 terrorists should be subject to a military tribunal instead of a visible, open trial in New York City (34 percent agree with Congressman A), including an 82 to 15 percent margin among Republicans and a 65 to 30 percent margin among Independents. Democrats 55 and older agree with Congressman A, however, by a 54 to 36 percent margin, showing the Democratic base to be at odds with Independents and the older electorate as a whole.
Voters 55 and older split on whether President Obama’s national security and foreign relations policies have made America safer or less safe. Thirty-three percent say less safe, 30 percent say safer, with 31 percent saying the policies have had no effect. Those results, however, mask a double-digit margin among Independents saying those policies have made America less safe, 38 to 25 percent.

The following messages will resonate strongly with voters age 55 and older

More federal spending may be the agenda of the Democratic-controlled Congress, but it does not address your priority of cutting spending and lowering the deficit.
More federal spending is far more likely to increase deficits and debt than create good private sector jobs.
The Federal government is trying to do more things than it can do well, and the result will be a larger government, more spending, and higher taxes.
Congress cannot wait any longer to address the high level of debt that awaits our children and grandchildren.
President Obama made the right decision to send additional troops to Afghanistan, but closing Guantanamo Bay and providing 9/11 terrorists an open trial in New York City weakens our national security.

When these findings on federal debt and spending and national security issues are combined with findings about health-care policies tested in the same survey, on question after question, Republicans and Independents 55 and over stand on one side of the policy divide with Democrats standing on the other. Given the outsized role older voters play in non-presidential year elections, that pattern, should it persist, does not bode well for Democratic prospects in the 2010 elections.

Methodology

This survey consists of 1000 registered voters age 55 and older, chosen randomly from throughout the country through random-digit dialing targeted toward respondents 55 and older, using live interviewers. Calls were conducted December 6-9, 2009. Calling quotas were established by state, age, race, and gender using Census Bureau data for adults 55 and older. Seventy-eight percent of the sample is white, 10 percent African-American, 7 percent Hispanic, and 4 percent other or refused. Females constitute 54 percent and males 46 percent. The sample is seven points more Democratic than Republican: 25 percent Republican, 41 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat. The margin of error for the full sample is 3.1 percent.

PollingAnalysis: Older Voters Strongly Reject Democrats' Health Care Reform

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 06:17:00 -0500

Key Messages:

The health care reform plans do not address your fundamental concern of lowering the cost of health care. Indeed, these plans do exactly the opposite by raising your health care costs.
Not only will these reform plans cause your health care costs to go up, they will raise your taxes, increase the deficit, raise your premiums, and hurt the quality of health care you receive.
The funding mechanisms envisioned to pay the cost of reform will harm Medicare and devastate Medicare Advantage.
Passing health care reform will harm our economy at a time when we need to focus on creating jobs.

With their health care reform proposals, Democrats in Congress are digging an enormous political hole with voters age 55 and older, a demographic group that plays an outsized role in non-presidential year elections. Voters age 55 and older think health care reform will raise their taxes, increase the deficit, raise their premiums, cause their health care costs to go up, and cause the quality of the health care they receive to go down. Simply put, these voters reject every central argument made by Democrats in support of their legislation.

That conclusion is clear in Resurgent Republic's latest survey of 1000 registered voters age 55 and older conducted Sunday through Wednesday, December 6-9, 2009. Resurgent Republic focused on this group because they are the greatest consumers of health care, and thus have the greatest stake in health care reform. Moreover, turnout among this group historically surpasses that of younger voters in non-presidential election years like 2010.

The party balance among voters age 55 and older stands remarkably close to that of registered voters overall. Democratic identifiers enjoy a seven-point advantage over Republicans in this sample, at 32 to 25 percent. The Pollster.com average of recent surveys shows a Democratic advantage among all registered and likely voters of six points. President Obama's favorable rating is 53 percent among these voters, almost identical to his 54 percent favorable rating nationally in the Pollster.com average. But the Democratic party ID advantage and President Obama's majority favorable rating does not translate into support for Democratic health care proposals among voters age 55 and older—reflecting strong opposition from Independent voters as well as Republicans.

Voters age 55 and older overwhelmingly view health care costs as their greatest financial concern. 40 percent say paying for health care costs is their greatest financial concern, far more than those who cite paying for retirement (17 percent), paying their taxes (14 percent), paying their mortgage or rent (9 percent), or losing a job (5 percent). Paying for health care costs ranks first for all three partisan groups, Republicans (34 percent), Independents (42 percent), and Democrats (43 percent).
Consequently voters age 55 and older think "lowering the costs of health care" should be the top health care priority for the country, but they think President Obama's top priority is "covering more of the uninsured." When asked which health care priority the country should focus on first, 45 percent say lowering costs, 28 percent say covering the uninsured, and 18 percent say improving the quality of health care. But when asked about the President's top priority, 43 percent say it is covering the uninsured, 32 percent think it is lowering costs, and 14 percent say improving quality.
Voters age 55 and older oppose "the health care reforms being debated in Congress" by 48 to 39 percent. Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed at 83 to 9 percent, as are a majority of Independents at 52 to 33 percent. Only Democratic voters in this survey support the reforms, 70 to 16 percent. Opposition among voters age 55 and older tracks the latest Pollster.com average where voters of all ages oppose the health care reform plan by 52 to 39 percent.
The reason for their opposition is readily apparent: voters age 55 and older think health care reform will raise their taxes, increase the deficit, raise their premiums, cause their health care costs to go up, and cause the quality of the health care they receive to go down.

By 76 to 3 percent, voters age 55 and older think "the health care reforms being debated in Congress" will increase rather than decrease their taxes. 89 percent of Republicans and 80 percent of Independents think reform will increase their taxes. But surprisingly, even 62 percent of Democrats think their taxes will go up as a result of health care reform.

68 percent think health care reform will increase the federal deficit. Only 7 percent think the deficit will go down, and 15 percent say reform will have no effect on the deficit. 84 percent of Republicans, 77 percent of Independents, and 46 percent of Democrats think the deficit will go up.

61 percent think health care reform will increase their health insurance or Medicare premiums, and only 13 percent think reform will lower their premiums. 70 percent of Republicans, 67 percent of Independents, and 46 percent of Democrats think reform will raise their premiums.

61 percent think reform will increase their health care costs. 78 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of Independents, and 43 percent of Democrats think their health care costs will go up as a result of reform.

41 percent think health care reform will decrease the quality of health care they receive, 22 percent think it will increase quality, and 30 percent think it will have no effect. Republicans think it will decrease rather than increase their quality of care by 61 to 17 percent, as do Independents by 48 to 16 percent. Only Democrats think it will increase their quality of care by 33 to 15 percent, while 41 percent say reform will have no effect on quality.
Voters age 55 and older overwhelmingly oppose the primary funding mechanisms for health care reform in the Senate plan: cutting Medicare spending, taxing Cadillac health plans, increasing Medicare payroll taxes, and cutting Medicare Advantage. Taxing elective cosmetic surgery is the only funding provision that receives majority support.

81 percent oppose cutting Medicare by $400 billion, and only 11 percent support the Medicare cuts "to fund health care reform." Opposition stands at 92 percent among Republicans, 79 percent among Independents, and 76 percent among Democrats.

Even when presented with the rationale for Medicare cuts, voters age 55 and older are still opposed.

Congressman A says cutting Medicare spending by $400 billion is a good idea. It will cut out waste, require doctors and hospitals to charge less, and strengthen Medicare for the future.

Congressman B says cutting Medicare spending by $400 billion is a bad idea. It will severely cut Medicare Advantage, cause rural hospitals to close, and make it harder for seniors to find doctors willing to treat them.

67 percent of voters age 55 and older agree with Congressman B, while only 24 percent agree with Congressman A. Not only is the margin great for Congressman B's argument, but intensity overwhelmingly favors Congressman B. 51 percent strongly agree with B, while only 13 percent strongly agree with A. Republicans prefer B's argument over A's by 80 to 15 percent, Independents prefer B by 69 to 21 percent, and even Democrats prefer B by 54 to 36 percent.

63 percent oppose "taxing employer-provided health care benefits that are worth over $8,500 a year for individuals or over $23,000 a year for a family." Opposition extends to 76 percent among Republicans, 67 percent among Independents, and 47 percent among Democrats.

63 percent oppose "increasing Medicare payroll taxes." Opposition by party is 78 percent among Republicans, 64 percent among Independents, and 49 percent among Democrats.

60 percent oppose "cutting or eliminating Medicare Advantage," the program that enrolls about 23 percent of seniors. 68 percent of Republicans are opposed to cutting funding for the program, as are 61 percent of Independents and 53 percent of Democrats.

A slim majority supports "taxing elective cosmetic surgery," 52 to 40 percent. Republicans oppose the cosmetic surgery tax by 49 to 39 percent, while Independents support it 52 to 42 percent, as do Democrats by 61 to 32 percent.
Voters age 55 and older reject one of the critical rationales behind health care reform, that it will help the economy. By a margin of 45 to 27 percent, they think the health care reforms being debated in Congress will hurt rather than help the economy (18 percent say it will have no effect, and 10 percent are unsure). Republicans overwhelmingly think it will hurt (77 to 5 percent), while a majority of Democrats think it will help (54 to 14 percent). But the swing group of Independents says health care reform will hurt the economy by a margin of three-to-one: 51 to 17 percent.
Voters age 55 and older support the abortion restrictions in the House bill.

Congressman A says abortion should be allowed in a government-run health insurance plan, and abortion should be covered in federally-subsidized plans if patients pay for it themselves, because if abortion is legal it should be covered under government health plans.

Congressman B says abortions should not be allowed in a government-run health insurance plan, and abortions should not be covered by an insurance plan that receives federal subsidies, because it means taxpayers who object to abortion are forced to subsidize abortion.

58 percent of voters age 55 and older agree with Congressman B, the House bill, while 34 percent agree with Congressman A, the Senate bill. Republicans prefer B over A by 78 to 16 percent, as do Independents by 59 to 31 percent. Democrats prefer A over B by 51 to 40 percent.
Voters age 55 and older from all three partisan groups are skeptical about the government task force recommendation that women should delay regular mammograms until age 50.

Congressman A says when a government task force recommends that women delay getting mammograms until age 50, we should follow their advice to reduce costs and eliminate unnecessary tests and radiation exposure.

Congressman B says when a government task force recommends that women delay getting mammograms until age 50, we should treat their advice skeptically because they could be more concerned about saving the government money than improving women's health.

By 63 to 26 percent, voters age 55 and older agree with Congressman B. Republicans prefer B's argument by 72 to 20 percent, Independents do so by 65 to 24 percent, and Democrats agree by 54 to 32 percent.

Opponents of the health care reforms being debated in Congress will find overwhelming agreement among voters age 55 and older on four messages:

The health care reform plans do not address your fundamental concern of lowering the cost of health care. Indeed, these plans do exactly the opposite by raising your health care costs.
Not only will these reform plans cause your health care costs to go up, they will raise your taxes, increase the deficit, raise your premiums, and hurt the quality of health care you receive.
The funding mechanisms envisioned to pay the cost of reform will harm Medicare and devastate Medicare Advantage.
Passing health care reform will harm our economy at a time when we need to focus on creating jobs.

Methodology

This survey consists of 1000 registered voters age 55 and older, chosen randomly from throughout the country through random-digit dialing targeted toward respondents 55 and older, using live interviewers. Calls were conducted December 6-9, 2009. Calling quotas were established by state, age, race, and gender using Census Bureau data for adults 55 and older. 78 percent of the sample is white, 10 percent African-American, 7 percent Hispanic, and 4 percent other or refused. Females constitute 54 percent and males 46 percent. The sample is seven points more Democratic than Republican: 25 percent Republican, 41 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat. The margin of error for the full sample is 3.1 percent.

PollingAnalysis: Voters Find Serious Vulnerabilities in Democratic Health Care Proposals

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 02:22:00 -0400

Overview

President Obama’s push for health care reform is in trouble on Capitol Hill, and the latest Resurgent Republic survey indicates why. As was seen in last month’s survey on issues involving enhanced interrogation techniques, on critical aspects of the Democrats’ health care proposals, Democratic voters are on one side while Independents side with Republicans on the other. This split is especially true of perceptions involving budgetary impact, taxes and the threat to private coverage.

There are four important takeaways from this survey for those who oppose greater federal control over our nation’s health care system in general, and a “public option” in particular:

Concern about runaway federal spending and mounting federal debt is the Achilles heel of the Obama health care plan. Its opponents should place these fiscal concerns at the center of their argument.
Proponents of the Obama plan can’t “get healthy” on the debt side of the argument by offsetting the cost of the plan with higher taxes on existing private health insurance benefits. New taxes on health care benefits runs smack into a principal concern over rising health care costs.
There is a significant gap between those who say they prefer a system where most Americans get their health care coverage through private insurance and opposition to a public insurance plan, especially among critical Independent voters. Emphasizing how the public plan option would result in those with private insurance being moved into a government program is fertile ground for opponents.
Concerns over diminished quality of care and/or control by government bureaucrats seem to have less impact in the current environment than in 1993, when a major overhaul of our health care system was last debated. Indeed, “government bureaucrats” are scarcely less appealing than “insurance bureaucrats,” and arguments over wait time and denial of treatment are much less resonant than cost arguments. Opponents of “ObamaCare” would be wrong to think that the central arguments that defeated “ClintonCare” would prevail again today.

In addition to the above four takeaways, there is a caveat: Concern about rising health care costs outstrips every other economic concern today. Health care costs rank first on the list of greatest financial concerns (19%), ahead of paying for retirement (16%) or the mortgage (13%), losing a job (12%), education costs (11%) or taxes (8%).

So while this survey focused on arguments for and against proposals being put forward by President Obama and the majority in Congress, opposition to these reform proposals should not be mistaken for opposition to reform. This survey was conducted in a stark “for or against” format. Augmenting the “against” arguments with positive alternative proposals focused on controlling rising health care costs would most likely result in greater opposition to the Obama Administration approach.

We now look at the data underlying the conclusions above.

Fiscal Concerns

Voters overwhelmingly agree (58%) with the statement “reforming health care is important, but it should be done without raising taxes or increasing the deficit,” with 41% in strong agreement. A majority of Republicans (75%) and Independents (62%) are on one side in agreement, while only 38% of Democrats agreed (versus 57% of Democrats who agreed instead that “reforming health care is so important that the government should invest new resources to make sure it is done right”).

The electorate splits evenly on the need to address a health care crisis now by controlling costs, covering the uninsured and improving the quality of care (47% agreeing) versus an “enough is enough” argument against acting now because the federal government has already spent billions to take over banks and auto companies and threatens to bankrupt the country (49% agreeing). But while that split is within the margin of error, Independents side with the “enough is enough” argument by 12 points (52-40).

A similar even split (47-48) occurs when the “address the health care crisis now” argument is pitted against opposition on the basis that “now is not the right time with the country facing the most serious recession in modern times.” But this argument resonates slightly less with Independents than the preceding one, as they agree “now is not the right time” by an eight-point margin (50-42).

Taxes

Raising taxes to ensure everyone has health insurance is a non-starter with voters. By a 13-point margin of 52-39, respondents preferred a health care reform plan that does not provide health insurance to all Americans but keeps taxes at current levels over a reform plan that raises taxes in order to provide health insurance to all Americans. Republicans preferred the plan with taxes at current levels by a whopping 60 percentage points, while Independents were close to the mean with a 16-point preference. However, Democrats favored a plan that raises taxes by a 27- point margin.

Voters reject paying taxes on health care benefits in general (71-22), paying taxes on employer-provided health benefits above $13,000 (69-25), and eliminating tax deductions for charitable contributions and mortgage interest for people who make over $250,000 per year (55-38). In every instance, a clear majority of Republicans and Independents were opposed, joined by a majority of Democrats on the first two.

Quality of Care

Arguments that a public plan will expand coverage, control costs and improve quality trump arguments that more government involvement will create long wait times, deny needed treatments and hinder quality by five percentage points (49-44), but again Independents (37-49) are more aligned with Republicans (28-69) than Democrats (74-20).

The prospect that a public plan would lead to health care similar to that in “Europe and Canada, with fewer covered procedures, long wait times for surgery and more government bureaucracy” is less resonant than the prospect that it would “allow citizens to have one more choice for health insurance and will force private plans to stay competitive on costs and services.” Only 43% agreed with the former, while 53% agreed with the latter. Republicans (66-32) and Democrats (20-77) were predictably polarized, while Independents split evenly (47-46).

The public splits evenly when asked whether they agree if “private sector health care leaves too many important decisions in the hands of insurance company bureaucrats instead of doctors and patients” (44% agree) or “government-run health care would leave too many important decisions in the hands of government bureaucrats instead of doctors and patients” (45% agree). But on this contrast, Republicans and Independents are more concerned by decisions in the hands of government bureaucrats than insurance company bureaucrats by margins of 63-31 and 46-36, respectively. Democrats, by contrast, are more concerned by decisions in the hands of insurance company bureaucrats than government bureaucrats by a margin of 59-29.

Independents, however, are closer to Democrats than Republicans in agreeing that “greedy insurance companies and drug companies” charge “way too much for the services they provide,” and “if the government regulated what they could charge, health care costs would be a lot more reasonable.” By an overall margin of 55-39, voters agreed with that statement versus agreeing with a statement that such “regulation of health care prices will lead to less innovative treatments, lower quality health care and fewer health care providers.” Democrats split 75-21 between the two statements, Independents 51-38 and Republicans 32-63.

Private Versus Public Insurance

Asked whether they would prefer a system where most Americans get their health care coverage through the federal government or a private insurance company, voters favored a predominantly private insurance system by almost exactly two-to-one, 60-31. The Republican margin was almost exactly 8:1 (87-11), and Independents 2½:1 (61-24). Democrats diverged, favoring a system where most Americans get their coverage through the federal government by 15 points (37-52).

This explains important splits in two subsequent policy-related questions. Forty-seven percent (47%) agreed with the statement “Americans need a public health insurance plan administered by the Federal Government to expand choices and control costs by competing with private insurance companies” versus 45% who agreed with the statement “a government-run health insurance plan will use taxpayer subsidies to undercut private insurance rates, and force private companies out of business, resulting in everyone going into a government-run plan.”

But when you break this essential tie into partisan IDs, a majority of Independents (51%) agree with the undercutting argument, more in line with the vast majority of Republicans (67%) than the mere 23% of Democrats.

While a plurality in the survey (49%) agreed that “to increase the number of people with health insurance coverage, the federal government should require all employers to provide health insurance for their employees, or pay to support a public plan that would cover their employees” versus the 43% who agreed “if the federal government requires all employers to provide health insurance for their employees or pay to support a public plan, employers will likely drop their coverage and shift their employees into a public plan.” That plurality, however, is driven by the overwhelming agreement of Democrats (66-27). Independents (39-50) and Republicans (36-55) were more likely to agree with the private-to-public shift argument.

There is an inconsistent gap between the strong preference for a system where most Americans get their health coverage through private insurance and the pluralities favoring the employer mandate/tax and the public insurance plan. If the public better understood the private-to-public shift that would result from these two policies, support for them would likely drop significantly.

This is especially true when you consider that 68% of respondents have employer-provided or individual health insurance, versus 22% who are in a government program. Of the 68% privately covered, 90% are satisfied with the quality of their care. Yet 46% of the 68% privately insured today agreed with the employer mandate/tax argument, and 44% of them agreed with the public insurance option argument.

Were they to understand the impact both policies could have on their own insurance, that support would drop. The prominent concern about paying for health care costs cited up front indicates that a greater understanding of how a public option would likely result in higher costs to those with individual or employer-provided coverage would also move voters away from supporting it.

One final note about seniors, who tend to follow any debate about health care closely. They are the age group that is most satisfied with their current health care and most concerned about health care costs. That suggests that proposals to cut $300 to $400 billion from Medicare funding will run into a firestorm of criticism from seniors.

Critics of the public option and employer mandates would do well to hammer away on three vulnerabilities: 1) These proposals will cost too much in higher taxes and federal deficits. 2) These proposals will raise the cost of health care for those with private insurance. 3) These proposals will make it very likely that if you have private insurance, you will end up in a government program.

Combining these critiques with a positive message focused on addressing cost concerns (i.e., 55% in this survey agreed that “frivolous medical malpractice lawsuits…significantly drive up the cost of health care”) and making health care more affordable could help lead to passage of a bipartisan health care reform bill in this Congress.

Methodology

This survey consists of 1000 registered voters chosen randomly from throughout the country through random-digit dialing of both landline and cell phones. Calls were conducted June 15-18, 2009. Calling quotas were established by state, urban area, age, race, and gender. The sample is 6 points more Democratic than Republican: 32 percent Republican, 26 percent Independent, and 38 percent Democrat. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

PollingAnalysis: Public, Political Left At Odds Over Interrogation

Sat, 16 May 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Overview

On May 11-14, 2009, Resurgent Republic conducted an extensive survey of registered voters regarding the current debate over harsh interrogations of high-value al-Qaeda detainees. The survey began with a question defining the terms: “Defenders call harsh interrogations ‘enhanced interrogation techniques,’ and critics call them ‘torture.’” American voters believe “harsh interrogation of detainees” was justified by a 19-point margin, 53 to 34 percent. That is almost identical to a Gallup Poll of adults on April 24-25 that found Americans believe “harsh interrogation techniques for terrorism suspects” were justified by 55 to 36 percent.

There is a sharp partisan divide in the responses, with Republicans believing that harsh techniques were justified by 82 to 10 percent, but Democrats believing harsh techniques were not justified by 57 to 27 percent. Independents, who constitute 30 percent of the respondents, are much closer to Republicans on this issue, believing harsh techniques were justified by 53 to 31 percent.

After hearing a series of common arguments both in favor of and in opposition to those interrogation techniques, as well as descriptions of the techniques themselves, respondents still believe the harsh methods were justified, this time by a 20-point margin, 56 to 36 percent.

In a recent press conference, President Obama said the key question in this debate is whether harsh interrogations made America safer. By a margin of 52 to 39 percent, American voters think harsh interrogations have made us safer. Democrats think harsh techniques have not made us safer by 55 to 36 percent. But Republicans think they have made us safer by 71 to 23 percent, and Independents agree by 51 to 39 percent.

The survey summarized the overall argument on both sides as:

Congressman A says America should never use harsh interrogation techniques on detainees, because they are torture. Those techniques undermine our values, hurt our standing in the world, endanger American troops who might be taken prisoner, and yield little or no useful information that could not be obtained by other means.

Congressman B says that, while harsh interrogation techniques of detainees should be used only rarely, they may be necessary in exceptional situations to protect the country. Those techniques are justified when they are the only way to stop the murder of another 3000 innocent Americans in another 9/11.

American voters agree with the second argument in favor of limited use of harsh interrogations over prohibiting harsh interrogations by 61 to 34 percent. Once again, Democrats are on one side of the divide, thinking that harsh interrogations should be prohibited, by 49 to 46 percent. But Republicans (80 to 18 percent) and Independents (60 to 35 percent) are on the other side of the divide, overwhelmingly thinking that harsh interrogations may be necessary in extraordinary circumstances.

On three different questions, voters consistently agree that harsh interrogation techniques were effective at gaining useful information. For example:

Congressman A says harsh interrogation of detainees is not effective. It yields little useful information that could not have been obtained by traditional interrogation methods. Harsh interrogation makes detainees lie to stop the harsh treatment. While traditional methods might take more time, they are more effective in the long run.

Congressman B says harsh interrogation techniques of detainees is effective. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the master mind of 9/11, refused to talk to interrogators under traditional interrogation methods, and disclosed information about planned attacks only after being waterboarded many times. American lives were saved by using these enhanced techniques.

By a margin of 55 to 39 percent, voters overall think harsh techniques are effective. Democrats agree with the first statement that harsh techniques are not effective, by 57 to
36 percent. But Republicans think they are effective by 76 to 22 percent, as do Independents by 56 to 35 percent.

On each of the following issues, questions presented strong arguments on either side of this debate. Highlights of public perceptions include:

Voters think the Obama Administration has tied the hands of the CIA in fighting terrorism by limiting interrogators to the Army Field Manual (51 to 42 percent).
Voters believe the Obama Administration made a serious mistake in releasing memos from the Bush Justice Department on harsh interrogation techniques (54 to 41 percent), and they strongly oppose criminal investigations of those responsible for authorizing or conducting those interrogations (62 to 32 percent).
Voters believe Congressional leaders like Speaker Nancy Pelosi were thoroughly briefed on those techniques at the time, and are only now objecting because of politics (57 to 29 percent).
When asked about specific techniques, large majorities believe prolonged standing, confinement in cramped spaces, and diet alteration are justified. A majority believes “making detainees remain naked during interrogation by interviewers of the same gender, as long as there is no threat of sexual abuse” is not justified. By a narrow margin (50 to 46 percent), voters overall believe waterboarding is not justified. Republicans believe waterboarding is justified (75 to 20 percent), as do Independents by a narrow margin (49 to 46 percent). But Democrats think waterboarding is not justified (80 to 18 percent).

In driving this debate, the political left is driving a sharp divide between Democrats on the one hand and Republicans and Independents on the other. Democrats believe that harsh interrogation techniques amount to torture that should have never been used and warrant investigation. Republicans and Independents believe that the techniques were justified and helped save American lives, and those who authorized and implemented them should not be investigated.

The next Resurgent Republic survey will focus on evaluations of America’s health-care system, and preferences for health-care reform.

Methodology

This survey consists of 1000 registered voters chosen randomly from throughout the country through random-digit dialing of both landline and cell phones. The sample was minimally weighted by age, race, and region to reflect 2008 voter turnout. The sample is 6 points more Democratic than Republican: 30 percent Republican, 30 percent Independent, and 36 percent Democrat. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

PollingAnalysis: Independents Side with Republicans on Obama Budget and More

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 20:00:00 -0400

Overview

This first Resurgent Republic survey of 1000 registered voters, conducted April 13-16, 2009, shows that President Obama remains quite popular, with 61 percent approving of his job performance and 32 percent disapproving so far. That is comparable to President George W. Bush’s job approval of 62 to 29 percent in the Gallup Poll on April 20-22 of his first year in office. President Obama’s job approval is somewhat higher than both President Clinton’s (55 percent) and the first President Bush’s (58 percent) in April of their first year, but lower than President Reagan’s in April after the attempt on his life (67 percent).

A wide partisan gap of 67 points exists in President Obama’s job approval, with 92 percent of Democrats approving versus only 25 percent of Republicans. Independents fall exactly between Democrats and Republicans on this measure, with 59 percent approving of the President’s job performance. Independent support for the President is a key indicator to monitor.

This survey verifies that America remains a center-right country. Voters prefer a smaller government with lower taxes over a larger government with higher taxes by a three-to-one margin. By a two-to-one margin, they think government should promote opportunity by fostering job growth, encouraging entrepreneurs, and allowing people to keep more of what they earn, rather than promote fairness by narrowing the gap between rich and poor, spreading the wealth, and making sure that economic outcomes are more equal.

Not surprisingly, concerns about the economy eclipse all others right now, with 57 percent citing it as the most important issue facing the United States. A majority of voters opposes President Obama’s proposed $3.6 trillion budget with its $1.4 trillion deficit, even as they believe he is responding to problems he inherited. They are deeply skeptical about the amount of money Mr. Obama proposes for the government to spend, tax, and borrow for bailouts and other spending programs that produce few private sector jobs.Independents, who hold the balance of power in this electorate, are closer to Republicans than to Democrats on these fiscal issues. Moreover, 84 percent of voters think the maximum federal income tax rate should be below its current rate of 35 percent, with more than two-thirds believing the maximum rate should be 20 percent or lower.

Republicans are on favorable ground resisting the amount of spending, taxing, and borrowing in the President’s proposed budget and will draw independents away from Mr. Obama’s camp by doing so.

As is often the case however, the more liberal argument fares better when it comes to specific spending proposals. Mention of education, energy, and health care “investment” to bring the country out of recession is more resonant than the argument that this Administration is taking advantage of the recession to make massive increases in government spending that will hurt our economy in the future by nearly tripling our debt.

On the debate over climate change, a substantial majority of American voters, including an overwhelming majority of independents, thinks climate change is happening and human activity is a significant cause. However, they think addressing the problem with any proposal that could raise energy prices during a severe recession is a bad idea. Recognizing that climate change is a problem is important, but voters want a solution that strengthens rather than hurts the economy. Cap-and-trade advocates have made significant progress on the “green jobs” argument. Those opposed to cap-and-trade will need to make a more persuasive case that such policies will shift more jobs abroad than they will create at home, and that the onus of the cost will fall on consumers rather than companies. Voters are dead set against a bait-and-switch strategy that would justify higher prices for gasoline and electricity to pay for health care reform.

An overwhelming majority of American voters supports President Obama’s decision to send 17,000 additional troops and 4,000 more trainers to Afghanistan, even though 41 percent of Democrats are opposed. Sixty-three percent of independents and 71 percent of Republicans back President Obama on this issue.

On the other hand, a strong majority believes the Guantanamo Bay prison helps protect America rather than undermines our moral authority. Independents are, again, much more like Republicans than Democrats on this issue. As is seen repeatedly in public opinion research, national security remains the Republicans’ strongest relative advantage over the Democrats and a major issue on which independents and Republicans hold similar views.

One social issue tested was the proposal to repeal conscience clause regulations that allow health care providers and workers to refrain from engaging in practices that are legal but personally morally objectionable, including abortion. Overwhelmingly (61 percent), voters believe “health care workers should not be required to perform procedures they oppose on moral grounds, such as abortions.”

President Obama is personally popular, enjoying a 61 to 32 percent favorable-unfavorable rating that is driven by an identical rating among independents. Congressional Democrats and Republicans fare less well however, particularly among independents, with “Democrats in Congress” having a 45 to 42 percent favorable-unfavorable rating (39 to 45 percent among independents), and “Republicans in Congress” having a 37 to 47 percent favorable-unfavorable rating (32 to 47 percent among independents).

Republicans have far more to work with in the current environment than many suspect. The key to rebuilding a majority coalition is regaining the support of independents. Particularly on the overall philosophy of government and on national security, Republicans show signs of gaining ground.