Changes in Party Self-Identification Could Boost Republicans in November
Posted by
on
July
30th,
2010
@
8:24am
(Editors Note: This piece is cross posted at the Weekly Standard Blog)
The proportion of Republicans, Democrats, and independents that turnout to vote shapes the outcome of every election. Even small shifts in these percentages can dramatically alter political outcomes. And this November’s midterm is no exception.
But estimating the partisan composition of the electorate – and especially making comparisons over time -- is trickier than you might think.
Gallup underscored this point earlier this week, showing how shifts in partisan identification over the past two years have produced more politically “competitive” states, as fewer Americans identify as Democrats.
The federal deficit is projected to be $1.47 trillion and $1.42 trillion over the next two years respectively, both higher than last year's record deficit. According to Resurgent Republic's new survey, voters believe reckless government spending is the primary culprit, even as the economic recovery continues to lag and “lower tax receipts, primarily from capital gains taxes, raised deficit projections for 2011 and 2012.” Yet by a 56 to 41 percent margin, Democrats favor increasing the capital gains tax rate from 15 to 20 percent.