Dems Should Focus on the Color Purple
Published on
September 18, 2009
By Charlie Cook | The National Journal
Blue-state Democrats are showing little awareness that their party has a problem.
In June 1953, cartoonist Walt Kelly had one of his characters say the immortal words, "We have met the enemy and he is us." Congressional Democrats would be wise to take this line to heart.
Some Capitol Hill Democrats are accusing President Obama of pushing too hard; others argue that he has not provided enough leadership or pushed hard enough. Although Obama has indeed made some critical miscalculations and missteps this year, the Democratic Congress has significantly damaged itself. And its members -- not Obama -- will be the ones on the ballot in November 2010.
Republicans have finally come up with an organization to do the public opinion and message testing that Stan Greenberg and James Carville's Democracy Corps has long done for Democrats. The consortium, dubbed Resurgent Republic, produced a report last week based on focus groups conducted last month among independent voters in Florida, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia by five prominent GOP pollsters. The report, written by former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie and a sixth top poller, Whit Ayres, found a reservoir of goodwill among independents toward Obama -- if not his policies -- but those warm feelings did not extend to Congress.
I am becoming convinced, based on this and other research, that although many independent voters are disappointed in specific things that Obama has done, they still hope that he will do well and believe that he might. To be sure, red America has already given Obama the thumbs down. And blue America just wishes he would be more liberal. But it's purple America, the independents who voted for Democrats in the 2006 midterm election by an 18-point margin, that makes the biggest difference right now. Most House Democrats live in blue America and show little awareness that their party has a problem. However, the Democrats' majority is built on a layer of 54 seats that the party picked up in 2006 and 2008 that are largely in purple -- or even red -- America. Democrats ought to keep in mind that 84 of their current House members represent districts won by President Bush in 2004 or John McCain in 2008.