Independents Lost in Translation
The White House said they ran into a buzz saw. Then the description was a blizzard of opposition. The metaphors might change, but new poll figures show that Independent voters have not flinched in their disapproval of President Obama’s job performance. In addition, the White House’s unapologetic pursuit of policies that alienate Independents has a direct impact on congressional Democrats in 2010, in case there was any confusion about Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts.
In a new Gallup survey, President Obama fails to garner majority support among Independent voters on any of the nine issues tested, receiving his highest approval on education (48 percent) and lowest on the federal budget deficit (24 percent). On terrorism, 43 percent of Independents approve. Only 1 in 4 Independents approve of his handling of health care, anemic support considering the resources spent. On the economy, Independents give President Obama a 29 percent approval rating, complicating his pivot to job growth.
In addition to job approval, President Obama’s image among Independents has been tarnished, according to a recent Marist poll. A majority has an unfavorable impression (52 percent) and believes he has fallen below their expectations (53 percent). More Independents believe his policies represent change for the worse (45 percent) than change for the better (26 percent).
President Obama’s struggle with Independents – both on job approval and image – has a direct impact on congressional Democrats in 2010. On the congressional generic ballot, Democrats have trailed Republicans among Independents since Gallup’s initial test last July. Today, Independents give Republicans a 16 point advantage, 47 to 31 percent. At this point in 2006, Democrat support among Independents was at 50 percent or higher.
The Democratic base also feels the rebellion of the center. More Democrats say they are less enthusiastic to vote than in previous elections, 45 to 41 percent, while Republicans say they are more enthusiastic, 55 to 30 percent.
President Obama’s trouble with Independents is palpable, even more so for congressional Democrats, no matter what metaphor is used.
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