Resurgent Republic

Compared to 2006 and 2008, there is greater parity today in how voters perceive the two major political parties, largely due to concern over a weakened economy, anemic job creation, health care reform and record government spending and debt.  In fact most polls give Republicans a slight advantage in the generic congressional ballot, and Independents prefer the Republican candidate 43 to 37 percent according to Gallup.

In addition to Independents being more aligned with Republicans, Democrats face tough political headwinds today due to a voter enthusiasm gap by political party and age group. While there is still time to close the gap, any public opinion movement is more likely to alter the degree of Democrat woes not the certainty. 

Among those who claim to be very enthusiastic to vote, Republicans hold an 18 point advantage over Democrats, 42 to 24 percent, while 44 percent of Democrats are not enthusiastic to vote compared to only 30 percent of Republicans.  Without question, three statewide electoral victories have buoyed conservative hopes, while liberals show growing frustration over the inability to enact health care reform and the escalation of the Afghanistan war.  Liberal fatigue could head further south if President Obama overrules his Justice Department on civilian versus military trials for suspected 9/11 terrorists.

More ominous news for Democrats can be seen in the enthusiasm gap by age.  Voters age 18-29 have the largest negative enthusiasm gap among all age groups, 20 percent are very enthusiastic to vote while 44 percent are not enthusiastic (-22 points).  In 2008 President Obama benefited greatly from these voters – winning 66 percent – but high unemployment and continued political partisanship has made it less certain they will turnout in November. 

Voters age 50 to 64 and 65 and older have higher percentages who say they are very enthusiastic to vote, 39 percent and 35 percent respectively. This is troubling for Democrats on two fronts.  First, it is well-known that older voters comprise a much greater proportion of the total electorate in mid-term elections, and secondly, President Obama’s job approval numbers decrease among older voters

In the latest Gallup figures, 61 percent of voters age 18-29 approve of President Obama’s job performance – the only age group with majority approval.  Job approval among voters age 50 to 64 and 65 and older sinks to 46 percent and 45 percent respectively, largely due to opposition over his health care proposals.

Resurgent Republic polling found voters 55 and older unsupportive of the proposals that have consumed much of the past year’s debate.  These voters largely believe Democrat health care proposals “will raise their taxes, increase the deficit, raise their premiums, cause their health care costs to go up, and cause the quality of the health care they receive to go down.”  The voter enthusiasm gap by party and age will be worthwhile to track as November nears.

Read more about Democrat challenges with older voters on health care and the 2010 elections.