Resurgent Republic

The Republican upset in the Massachusetts Senate race ignited a fury of finger pointing between Democrats in the Bay State and Washington.  National Democrats quickly labeled the state campaign as disorganized and slow to raise the warning flag.  Given President Barack Obama’s public opinion drop during his first year, shouldn’t the White House and Democratic Congress been able to predict the tough road ahead, that a rebellion of the center was underway?

Today President Obama’s job approval rating hovers around 50 percent with some surveys dipping into the mid-40’s – a stunning reality check from an 80 percent approval last January.  Of course it is common for presidents to face a leveling off during their first year, but Barack Obama’s transition from candidate to president has been seemingly lost in translation, along with the key swing voters he handily won during the campaign.

The drop in job approval has been largely influenced by his handling of the economy and health care.  In the most recent ABC/Washington Post survey, President Obama receives double-digit disapproval margins on the economy, 60 to 47 percent, and health care, 57 to 44 percent. And his anticipated deficit reduction rhetoric at next week’s State of the Union will be met with a frosty 38 percent approval rating.

President Obama’s first year struggles have damaged his image crafted during the 2008 campaign, as a harbinger of hope and change.  In a new CBS News survey, a solid majority believes that he has not brought real change to Washington, 59 to 35 percent overall and 64 to 28 percent among Independents.  Three out of four Americans also believe he has kept only some or hardly any of his campaign promises, potential evidence that debates over C-SPAN and transparency resonate outside the beltway. 

In addition, Americans are also adjusting their views on the proper role of government. In February, Americans believed that government should do more to help the needs of people, 51 to 40 percent. Today more Americans believe that government is doing too many things better left to the private sector and individuals, 48 to 43 percent (NBC/Wall Street Journal survey).  This might help explain why Americans also believe the Obama Administration has not done enough to help small businesses, 62 to 28 percent, according to CBS News.  No doubt this sentiment will make a jobs pivot much more difficult. 

Last month President Obama told Oprah Winfrey that he earned a “good, solid B+” at the conclusion of his first year, but that report might not be an accurate reflection of public opinion, according to CBS News.  After his first year, 46 percent believe he has been a good or very good president, down 22 points since inauguration, and 54 percent believe he has been an average or poor president, up 30 points since inauguration. And twice as many Independents believe he has been average or poor, 67 to 32 percent.

So as the Massachusetts post-mortem continues, it is evident that the White House and Democratic Congress failed to understand just how badly they have alienated Independents.  The Massachusetts Senate race is the latest narrative of the center's rebellion, and it is likely not the last.